再談美國經濟現況

Charles W Eliot這位哈佛教授,美國前財政部長在英國金融時報的文章,其對美國經濟的看法有一點與我8月時寫的⟪榮景或低成長的十字路口 (We are at the crossroads of prosperity or low progress)⟫ (https://wp.me/p9ffS3-qB)相同:美國新任總統上台後的慶祝行情必須有實質經濟成長來支撐,但與我不同的是這位財政部長顯然是凱恩斯經濟學信徒,錯誤地認為公共支出擴大對經濟有幫助(凱恩斯經濟學派的錯誤過去我討論過,請自行爬文)。

而我依然認為較為全面的看法應該是我在⟪榮景⟫一文中所強調的:

“The raising of personal debts and reduction of savings means American are more eager to spend, which implies three possibilities:

A. the anticipated inflation rate increases, or;
B. the anticipated income grows, or;
C. the information cost of the future progress decreases.

The problem here is which factor weighs more over the others? If the factor A stands out, then, according to I. Fisher’s theory of the interest, the total wealth of the American will decrease. In a lucky situation, the Fed may sense it about six months later and stop raising the Fed Fund Rate to save the economy as it had done before. In a bad situation as the Fed blindly continuing raising the interest rate, we can predict a bear market coming for a while until the Fed realize the real situation. No matter which one happened, the recent economic expansion would not last for long.

If the factor B or C weighs more than the factor A, the total wealth will increase and the prosperity could be foreseen. There are two major causes to make it happen: one is the growth of productivity and the other is the decrease of transaction costs, including but not limited to the more friendly laws to businesses, over-haul lower tax burdens, and lower immigrant limits (including illegal Mexican immigrants).”

目前我們還沒看到明顯的美國國內通膨現象,而上市企業獲利確有增加,我在8月的點出的兩條路,似乎美國正在正向循環的這條道上走。

Trump總統努力中的減稅方案被主流媒體錯誤地解讀為只對富人有利。事實上本次減稅方案同時也激發兩黨檢討起美國諸多不恰當的補助政策,這點是好事。

再補充諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Milton Friedman曾言:

「”I am in favor of cutting taxes under any circumstances and for any excuse, for any reason, whenever it’s possible.
The reason I am is because I believe the big problem is not taxes, the big problem is spending.
The question is, “How do you hold down government spending?” Government spending now amounts to close to 40% of national income not counting indirect spending through regulation and the like.
If you include that, you get up to roughly half. The real danger we face is that number will creep up and up and up.
The only effective way I think to hold it down, is to hold down the amount of income the government has. The way to do that is to cut taxes.” –Milton Friedman」

政府的胡亂開支才是一切問題根源(包含本blog長期批判的政客尋租貪汙現象)。唯有透過大規模減稅,減少政府收入,才能讓這個敗家子可造成損害受到限制!

回頭看看台灣蔡英文政府,嘴巴嚷著政府沒錢所以拿公務員退休金開刀,但另一手卻是軌道建設4千億、鼓勵高中生提早進入職場的72億元「青年就業儲蓄方案」、學者政客分贓的「八五○億高教深耕計畫」…

台灣沒有主張小政府的右派政黨,嗚呼!

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