簡論人民幣幾項重點 (On Renminbi)

一、以這張M0發行量圖來看,人民幣相對可預期性高得多。美國發行美元方式更像是任性的小孩。注意2008年與2013年。在我看來,美國其實是對貨幣發行更不負責任的政府。

(Based on the M0 supply records, we can tell that the foreseeability of the supply of Renminbi (RMB) is higher than of the US dollar. The coinage of the US government was naughtier and more irresponsible, especially in 2008 and 2013. )

二、 2005年7月21日起,人民幣從只鉤美元轉為一籃子貨幣,而其中組成成分並未公開。

(Since July 21, 2005, the central bank of China has switched RMB from hooking solely onto the US dollar to a bucket of foreign currencies. The components have been confidential.)

但我們可以推估,剛開始美元佔一籃子的比例應該是超過九成,而隨著美元比例降低,我們看到隨後的人民幣對美元開始強勁升值。

(Nonetheless, we could guess that the weight of the US dollar of the bucket could be more than 90% in the beginning. With the decreasing of the US dollar weight of the bucket, the exchange of the RMB to the USD started to rise.)

這裡有幾個點大家要注意:

Note:

a. 人民幣轉強其實是2002年左右就可從外匯存底成長性提昇這點看出端倪,因為當時緊鉤美元匯率,所以在匯率價格不變之下,因世界對中國產品與服務的需求提昇,外匯存底開始大幅成長。

(a. We can figure out that the strength of the RMB had been enhanced from the more and more noticeable growth of the foreign exchange reserves from 2002. Since the RMB has hooked onto the US  dollar, as long as the exchange rate being unchanged, the growth of the foreign exchange reserves would massively climb due to the greater international aggregated demands for the Chinese products and services.)

b. 當人民幣2005年中轉鉤一籃子貨幣後,我們可以看到人民幣對美元升值,但外匯存底到2014年左右卻仍以驚人漲幅繼續成長,這代表人民幣是當時不但是世界最強貨幣,而且我們可以假設:如果人民幣對美元不升值,則外匯存底成長將更為驚人。

(b. The exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar started to climb after the hook being switched to a bucket of currencies. However, the growth of the foreign exchange reserves had astonishingly progressed, which showed that the RMB was the strongest currency against others during this period of time.  We may assume that if the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar had had not raised, the growth of the reserves would have been reaching surprisingly higher.)

c. 中國外匯存底的高度成長也部分解釋了為何2008年之後美元大幅發行卻未在美國境內引發高度通貨膨脹 — 因為人民幣鉤著美元本身,保證了美元的強勢。此論點大大傷害假台獨覺青的玻璃心,但事實上恰恰是中國的經濟實力保障了美元的購買力。

(c. The remarkable growth of the foreign exchange reserves of China partly explains the reason why there has been no noticeable inflation occurred domestically in the US after its massively printing money since 2008. Because the RMB had been hooking onto the US dollar, which promised the buying power of the US dollar. This argument would hurt the fragile hearts of the so-called youths of awareness.)

d. 但很明顯我們看到中國錯誤的經濟政策(如2008年相繼推出的騰籠換鳥策略、新勞動合同法)造成的傷害逐漸浮現,一堆邊際企業工廠倒閉出走,但希冀的高租值產業在哪仍朦朧不明。很清楚2015年後人民幣回貶,但外匯存底卻開始下降。這也是說,2015年後整體中國經濟實力不增反減的可能性是存在的。

(d. The damages caused by wrong economic policies, like the “changing-the-bird-in-the-cage” policy or the “new Labor Contract Law,” was getting more apparent. A lot of marginal firms were forced to close or being out of China, but we have seen not enough highly-profited companies to fulfill the absence. The decrease of the exchange rate of the RMB companying with the reduction of the foreign exchange reserves clearly reflects the possibility of the decline of the Chinese economy after 2015.)

e. 2016年後人民幣轉弱這點,我認為也可能部分因為人民幣鉤美元的比例重新回升(甚至重新以近乎100%比例鉤著)。

(e. The weak RMB could also be partly due to the ratio of the US dollar in the bucket raising back to as high as nearly 100% again.)

上述幾點綜合來看,我的淺見如下:

(Here are my humble opinions:)

A. 2001~2019年中國的M0貨幣發行量年複合增長率約8%;同時期外匯存底成長率約17%。如果假設人民幣的發行是以外匯存底為儲備的話,那我們並看不出來中國政府有長時期超發人民幣的現象。這點打臉了一堆目前網路上常見的「中國崩潰論」聲稱「人民幣購買力已經一毛不值」的錯誤假設。

(A. From 2001 to 2019, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Chinese M0 supply is around eight percent, and the CAGR of the foreign exchange reserves is about 17% of the same period. Say the reserves are also the currency issuance reserves of the Renminbi, there is no sign of oversupplying. This refutes what the common arguers, who believe “the coming collapse of China,” have claimed, “the RMB is worthless.”)

B. 川普與美國政府聲稱中國操弄人民幣使之故意被低估這點很明顯根本是胡扯,因為我們清楚看到人民幣2015年後轉弱勢是因為中國經濟實力轉弱與可能的籃子組成調整。IMF也發表聲明不認同「中國操弄人民幣」這謬論。


(B. President Trump and his administrations have claimed that the currency exchange manipulation by the Chinese government is obviously nonsense because the weakness after 2015 was mainly caused by the declined progress of the Chinese economy and possible adjustments of the components of the currency bucket. The IMF officially disagrees with the “China-manipulating-exchange-rate” argument, either.

C. 一堆大媽級財經專家以為人民幣貶值主因是中美貿易戰,在我看來是見樹不見林的經濟低手。一國貨幣的匯率長期趨勢始終反應的是該國的經濟實力,也就是世界他國對該國商品服務的總需求。

(C. A lot of conventional financial or economic experts who think the main reason for the declined exchange rate of the RMB is because of the trade wars between the US and China. They just cannot see the wood for the trees. The long term trend of the exchange rate of one nation’s currency always reflects the strength of the nation’s economy, which is de facto foreign aggregated demands for the very nation’s goods and services. )

D. 人民幣應該在2008~2012年最強勢之時放棄一籃子貨幣,轉鉤其他標的。現在時機並不如當年,但也非不可。我推測中國或許有此打算:近日國務院的簡政放權改革與負面清單項目減少,以及2014年開始研發的中國國家數位貨幣近日消息頻頻,均可能暗示著人民幣國際化即將啟程,人民幣轉鉤之日即將到來。而一旦人民幣成功轉鉤到較佳標的,則強勢美元將不再,人民幣國際化也會正式踏上旅程。因此川普事事怪罪中國這點雖然錯,但他希冀的「弱勢美元」,解鈴人的確是中國。

(D. I think the RMB should have had changed its hook from on a bucket of currencies to other targets while the RMB was vigorous during 2008~2012. Today’s timing is not as good as before. However, it is still worth a shot. According to the policy of “streamlining government functions and administration and delegating powers while improving regulation” pursued by the General Office of the State Council and more disclosed informations of the national digital currency developed by the People’s Bank of China, I guess the Chinese  government may have plans to change the hook of the RMB and to internationalize its currency. Once the Chinese government successfully get this job done, the strong US dollar will be no longer exist. The RMB will have its first step on the journey of internationalization. Although Mr. Trump was wrong on blaming China for everything, however, the Chinese government is true the key to the weak-dollar policy, which has been pursued by Mr. Trump.)

此間觀察的關鍵,就是中國可以把外匯管制解除到什麼程度。如果人民幣可以任由外國人買進賣出,而其幣值要維持穩定,則上佳的錨錠選擇是必不可免。更進一步談,人民幣如能達成「解除外匯管制與選定好錨」,則開發中國家與部分歐洲國家貨幣改為全部或一部鉤著人民幣,也將是大勢所趨。

( How and in what degree the Chinese government would lift its foreign exchange controls shall be under observation. It is unavoidable to hook a good target for keeping the value of the RMB steady while the foreigners can freely purchase and sell the RMB. Furthermore, if the Chinese government can victoriously complete this mission, other developing countries and European countries will partly change the hooks of their currencies onto the RMB. There will be a trend.)

反之,若中國始終選擇不換人民幣的錨,而一直以美元為主,則強勢美元也會一直持續。但人民幣國際化則會遙遙無期。

(Otherwise, if the Chinese government keeps its hook of the RMB unchanged, then the strong US dollar will continue but the internationalization of the RMB will be doomed.)

Leave a Reply

avatar

這個網站採用 Akismet 服務減少垃圾留言。進一步瞭解 Akismet 如何處理網站訪客的留言資料

  Subscribe  
Notify of