Charles W Eliot這位哈佛教授，美國前財政部長在英國金融時報的文章，其對美國經濟的看法有一點與我8月時寫的⟪榮景或低成長的十字路口 (We are at the crossroads of prosperity or low progress)⟫ (https://wp.me/p9ffS3-qB)相同：美國新任總統上台後的慶祝行情必須有實質經濟成長來支撐，但與我不同的是這位財政部長顯然是凱恩斯經濟學信徒，錯誤地認為公共支出擴大對經濟有幫助（凱恩斯經濟學派的錯誤過去我討論過，請自行爬文）。
“The raising of personal debts and reduction of savings means American are more eager to spend, which implies three possibilities:
A. the anticipated inflation rate increases, or;
B. the anticipated income grows, or;
C. the information cost of the future progress decreases.
The problem here is which factor weighs more over the others? If the factor A stands out, then, according to I. Fisher’s theory of the interest, the total wealth of the American will decrease. In a lucky situation, the Fed may sense it about six months later and stop raising the Fed Fund Rate to save the economy as it had done before. In a bad situation as the Fed blindly continuing raising the interest rate, we can predict a bear market coming for a while until the Fed realize the real situation. No matter which one happened, the recent economic expansion would not last for long.
If the factor B or C weighs more than the factor A, the total wealth will increase and the prosperity could be foreseen. There are two major causes to make it happen: one is the growth of productivity and the other is the decrease of transaction costs, including but not limited to the more friendly laws to businesses, over-haul lower tax burdens, and lower immigrant limits (including illegal Mexican immigrants).”
目前我們還沒看到明顯的美國國內通膨現象，而上市企業獲利確有增加，我在8月的點出的兩條路，似乎美國正在正向循環的這條道上走。 繼續閱讀 “再談美國經濟現況”