元毓說

美國在20世紀初以前，許多人相信肺結核是家裡有先人或過世成員變成吸血鬼回來索命造成的。尤其是肺結核中後期引發的身體快速消瘦、蒼白和咳血/膿，讓當時的美國人深信是被吸血鬼吸血後的症狀。

所以當時治療肺結核的一種手段就是挖出已故親人的墳墓，找到可能變成吸血鬼的屍體，然後用木樁插入心臟並焚燒。

這樣的迷信真的有人操作嗎？

有的，根據1790年的Yankee Express報導：

Isaac Burton 是佛蒙特州曼徹斯特市一家教堂的執事，他在結婚大約一兩年後妻子Rachel 因肺結核去世。一年多後，伯頓與另一名女子Hulda Powell再婚——18 個月內，Hulda也患上了此病。Burton的朋友和家人「斷定第一個妻子從墳墓里回來，以Hulda的生命之血為食，從而導致她患上疾病。他們確信，如果第一個妻子的內臟被燒成灰燼，Hulda就能痊癒。」

絕望的伯頓同意挖掘出瑞秋的屍體，將她現在腐爛的一些器官燒成灰燼。這些努力沒有奏效；霍達不到一年就去世了。

另外還有1883 年到 1892 年羅德島埃克塞特的Brown一家五口身上。該家族的三名成員——母親Mary Eliza 和兩個女兒Mary Olive和Mercy 都死於肺結核。男主人George T. Brown只剩下兒子Edwin，束手無策下，朋友和鄰居都勸告他，一定是有吸血鬼纏著他的家人，如果他不迅速採取行動，下一個就會輪到Edwin。最終，George同意了，挖出他死去的妻子和女兒的屍體並加以處理。

屍體挖出後，發現其女兒Mercy的屍骨不但沒有腐爛，反而頭髮和指甲比生前還長，群眾認定死後還繼續長肯定她就是吸血鬼，於是刺穿其心臟，並取出肝臟焚燒後把灰燼當作藥物餵給生病的Edwin。可是這種徒勞無功的舉措也沒救回Edwin。

相對地，同時期的中醫對肺結核認識深刻得多。

肺結核在中醫稱之為「肺癆」，最早見於【黃帝內經】（約成書於西漢之前，公元前221年－公元9年），已經記載臨床症狀：「…大骨枯槁，大肉陷下，胸中氣滿，喘息不便，內痛引肩項，身熱，脫肉破……肩髓內消。」、「…咳，脫形，身熱，脈小以疾。」

東漢張仲景【金匱要略】則記載了治療方法。

同時代的華佗【中藏經．傳屍論】已經認識到肺結核具有傳染性。到了隋代，巢元方著作的【諸病源候論•屍注候】更是載明該病：「死後復易旁人，乃至滅門。」

唐代王燾與孫思邈兩位醫家更是明確認定肺癆是一種「蟲病」。古代中醫將許多現代醫學所謂的「細菌感染性疾病」稱為「蟲病」，因為他們已經認識到有一類人眼看不見的「蟲」會致病也會傳染他人。

例如宋代陳無擇的《三因極一病證方論•勞瘵諸證》就指出：「諸證雖不同，其根多有蟲。」（古代中醫將引起肺結核的『蟲』命名為『瘵蟲』或『癆蟲』）

肺癆一直是歷代中醫的重點項目。姑且不論歷朝歷代的醫家療效如何，但諸多中醫投入身心研究並詳加記錄臨床觀察。

話說同樣19世紀，在前述仍有美國人將肺結核當作是吸血鬼作祟時，如清朝醫家唐容川（1851~1897）【血證論】記載：「…又有癆蟲。居於肺間。齧壞肺臟。金蝕不鳴。喉中癢咳喘熱難已。此為癆瘵難治之證。」

同時期知名醫家如張錫純(1860~1933)也記載了許多肺結核醫案，例如：

「…鹽山範××，年五十餘，素有肺癆，發時咳嗽連連，微兼喘促。仲夏末旬， 喘發甚劇，咳嗽晝夜不止，且嘔血甚多。延醫服藥十餘日，咳嗽嘔血，似 更加劇，憊莫能支。適愚自滄回籍，求為診治，其脈象洪而微數，右部又實而有力，視其舌苔白厚欲黃，問其心中甚熱，大便二三日一行，診畢， 斷曰：此溫病之熱，盤據陽明之府，逼迫胃氣上逆，因並肺氣上逆，所以 咳喘連連，且屢次嘔血也。 ….遂為疏方: 生地(二兩) 生石膏(一兩) 知母(八錢) 甘草(一錢) 廣犀角 (三錢另煎兌服) 三七(二錢細末用水送服) …如 此調養月餘，肺癆亦大見愈。 」

「…鄰村孫××，年三十許，自初夏得喘症。動則作喘，即安居呼吸亦似迫促， 服藥五十餘劑不愈。醫者以為已成肺癆諉為不治。聞愚回籍求為診治，其脈浮而滑，右寸關尤甚，知其風與痰互相膠漆滯塞肺竅也。為開麻杏甘石湯：麻黃三錢、杏仁三錢、生石膏一兩、甘草錢半，煎湯送服苦葶藶子(炒 熟)二錢，一劑而喘定，繼又服利痰潤肺少加表散之劑，數服全愈。 …」

現代肺結核是法定傳染病，一經發現就立即啟動一整套法定程序和西醫治療SOP。

Before the 20th century in the United States, many people believed that tuberculosis, also known as consumption, was caused by deceased family members or ancestors returning as vampires to claim lives. Especially in the later stages of tuberculosis, symptoms such as rapid weight loss, paleness, and coughing up blood or pus led Americans at the time to firmly believe these were the effects of being drained of blood by a vampire.

One method of treating tuberculosis at the time involved exhuming the graves of deceased relatives to find the body that might have turned into a vampire, then driving a stake through its heart and burning it.

Did people really practice this superstition?

Yes, according to a report by the Yankee Express in 1790:

Isaac Burton, a deacon of a church in Manchester, Vermont, lost his wife Rachel to tuberculosis about a year or two after their marriage. A little over a year later, Burton remarried Hulda Powell, who within 18 months contracted the disease as well. Burton’s friends and family “concluded that the first wife had come back from the grave to feed on the lifeblood of Hulda, thereby causing her illness. They were convinced that if the first wife’s viscera were burned to ashes, Hulda could be healed."

In desperation, Burton agreed to exhume Rachel’s body and burn some of her now decaying organs to ashes. These efforts were in vain; Hulda died within a year.

Another instance occurred between 1883 and 1892 with the Brown family of Exeter, Rhode Island, where three out of five family members—mother Mary Eliza and two daughters, Mary Olive and Mercy—died from tuberculosis. With only his son Edwin left, George T. Brown, the head of the family, was advised by friends and neighbors that a vampire must be preying on his family, and if he didn’t act quickly, Edwin would be next. George eventually agreed, exhuming the bodies of his deceased wife and daughters to deal with them accordingly.

After exhuming the bodies, they found that his daughter Mercy’s corpse had not decomposed and her hair and nails had grown longer than when she was alive. The crowd concluded that the post-mortem growth confirmed she was a vampire, so they pierced her heart, removed and burned her liver, and fed the ashes as a medicine to the sick Edwin. However, this futile act did not save Edwin either.

In contrast, traditional Chinese medicine had a much deeper understanding of tuberculosis during the same period.

Tuberculosis, referred to as “lung consumption" in traditional Chinese medicine, was first mentioned in “The Yellow Emperor’s Classic of Internal Medicine" (written before the Han dynasty, between 221 BC and AD 9), which documented clinical symptoms like “…emaciation of the flesh, fullness in the chest, difficulty in breathing, internal pain extending to the shoulders and back, fever, and muscle wastage…"

Zhang Zhongjing’s “Treatise on Febrile Diseases" during the Eastern Han dynasty recorded treatment methods.

Hua Tuo, in his “Zhongzang Jing – On Corpse Transmission" during the same era, recognized the contagious nature of tuberculosis. By the Sui dynasty, Chao Yuanfang’s “Zhubing Yuanhou Lun – On Corpse Transmission" explicitly stated that the disease could “revive after death and easily infect others, even to the extent of eradicating a family."

During the Tang dynasty, medical practitioners Wang Tao and Sun Simiao both identified lung consumption as a type of “worm disease." Ancient Chinese medicine often referred to what modern medicine calls “bacterial infectious diseases" as “worm diseases" because they recognized that a type of invisible “worm" could cause disease and infect others.

For instance, Chen Wuze’s “San Yin Ji Yi Bing Zheng Fang Lun – On Various Syndromes of Consumptive Disease" from the Song dynasty pointed out: “Although the symptoms are different, their root often involves worms." (Ancient Chinese medicine named the “worm" causing tuberculosis as “consumptive worm" or “phthisis worm.")

Lung consumption has always been a focal point in traditional Chinese medicine. Regardless of the effectiveness of treatments by medical practitioners over the dynasties, many invested their hearts and minds in research and meticulously recorded clinical observations.

Interestingly, in the 19th century, while some Americans still attributed tuberculosis to vampire attacks, Chinese physicians like Tang Rongchuan (1851-1897) in his “On Blood Syndromes" recorded: “…there are consumptive worms residing in the lungs, gnawing and damaging the lung tissues. The metal element ceases to resonate. The itch in the throat leads to incessant coughing, wheezing, and fever, making it a difficult case of consumptive disease to treat."

Renowned physicians of the same period, like Zhang Xichun (1860-1933), also documented many cases of tuberculosis, such as:

“…Fan from Y

anshan, over fifty years old, had chronic lung consumption. When it flared up, he would cough continuously, with slight shortness of breath. By late summer, the wheezing worsened significantly, with non-stop coughing day and night, and he coughed up a lot of blood. After more than ten days of treatment by a physician, the coughing and hemoptysis seemed to intensify, leaving him utterly exhausted. Fortunately, I had just returned from Cang to my hometown and was asked to diagnose and treat him. His pulse was large and slightly rapid, with the right pulse being particularly solid and forceful. His tongue coating was white and thick, verging on yellow. He complained of extreme heat in his heart and had bowel movements every two or three days. After the diagnosis, I concluded: ‘This is the heat of a warm disease, entrenched in the Yangming domain, oppressing the stomach qi causing it to rise rebelliously, hence the continuous coughing and wheezing, and repeated hemoptysis.’ …Therefore, I prescribed a dispersing formula: raw rehmannia (two liang), raw gypsum (one liang), anemarrhena (eight qian), licorice (one qian), wide rhinoceros horn (three qian, decocted separately and taken together), and notoginseng (two qian, finely powdered and taken with water) …After a month of such nourishment, the lung consumption significantly improved."

“…Sun from the neighboring village, around thirty years old, developed asthma since early summer. He would wheeze upon exertion, and even at rest, his breathing seemed constricted. After taking over fifty doses of medicine without improvement, the physician considered it incurable lung consumption. Hearing of my return, he sought my diagnosis and treatment. His pulse was floating and slippery, especially pronounced at the right cun and guan positions, indicating that wind and phlegm were mutually sticking and obstructing the lung orifices. I prescribed Ma Xing Gan Shi Tang: ephedra (three qian), almond (three qian), raw gypsum (one liang), licorice (one and a half qian), decocted in a soup and taken with roasted bitter melon seeds (two qian). One dose calmed the wheezing, and after a few more doses of phlegm-reducing and lung-moistening medicines with slight exterior-dispersing agents, he fully recovered. …"

In modern times, tuberculosis is a legally notifiable infectious disease, and once detected, a whole set of legal procedures and Western medical treatment SOPs are immediately initiated.

(translated by ChatGPT)

From the surface level, groups with resources are moving towards learning machines, which is closely related to Mainland China’s gradually improving copyright protection system.
Below the surface, based on my observations in Beijing with my child attending local primary school, the most common exit for tutoring teachers is to break down their services into smaller parts, resulting in an inability to scale economically. This leads to a significant increase in the cost of after-school tutoring for parents, just as economics would predict.
I originally thought that new education policies would greatly increase the influence of family financial resources on children’s competitive advantage in academic examinations. However, conversely, the aforementioned learning machines on the surface level are reducing the overall cost of after-school tutoring in a more economical way.
In other words, due to government intervention, the after-school tutoring market in Mainland China is polarizing. The general public is turning to learning machines and online education, which reduces costs, while wealthy families are paying higher fees for more customized and private educational services. The latter seems to be less related to the policy itself; there is always a supply when there is money.
One thing for certain is that over a decade ago, I explained in a column for the Southern Newspaper Group using economics that the pressure and competition level in education stem from the competitive pressure in the terminal labor market. Therefore, those so-called “human-centered education experts" who blindly call for adopting relaxed Western education methods are either foolishly unaware of the real world or intentionally pretending to be ignorant to deceive people for money.
Delving deeper, we can discuss the differences in intensity and quality between Western elite education and public education, and how the West relies on many artificially created monopolies to enjoy premium labor costs (e.g., patent and copyright systems). This topic is complicated and troublesome to discuss in detail. However, broadly speaking, the nearly 50-year catch-up by East Asian countries has inevitably led to a situation where the workforce in catching-up countries faces far greater intensity and pressure than those in so-called “advanced Western countries" who enjoy more monopolistic benefits. Thus, for a considerable time, we will see East Asian workers experiencing longer work hours and more pressure, yet seemingly having lower “nominal marginal productivity" compared to Western workers, which is a paradox that actual participants in the production line cannot discern.
Therefore, until per capita income levels out, the average work intensity/pressure in catching-up economies, along with the learning intensity/pressure passed down to all age groups, will remain relatively high. This level will be inversely proportional to the aforementioned difference in actual per capita income.
Hence, we see that Japan, which became wealthy earlier among the catching-up countries, is relatively early in adopting a laid-back attitude and experiencing phenomena such as the hikikomori (social withdrawal) culture in society.

(translated by ChatGPT)

1913年發明汽車流水線生產的Ford T型車初始上市售價850美元，遠比同時期其他品牌汽車2000~4000美元價格區間便宜非常多，因此市場競爭力特別強大，很快從富裕階層向中產階層拓展客源，而更廣大的市場反哺規模經濟下的流水線生產，使得生產成本進一步降低，到了1927年Ｔ型車售價不斷下壓至290美元。

靠著成本優勢獲得強大市場競爭力，在福特汽車上是載入史冊的近現代工業傳奇。

但到了現今中國新能源汽車上，同樣的成本優勢成為兩棲動物口中「滯銷品」、「賣越多越失敗」啦～

Adam Smith經典「國富論」為經濟學開山之作，書中清楚解釋市場廣度決定專業分工的程度 (“The division of labor is limited by the extent of the market”)。同時，專業分工的程度決定生產成本優勢。更重要的是，專業分工下的成本優勢又會進一步拓展市場廣度（”the division of labor gives rise to market institutions and expands the extent of the market. “）。

中國擁有世界數一數二，同文同種高度統一法規的巨大市場，必然可以容納小市場難以生存的專業分工型態，並以此取得巨大成本優勢拓展國際市場。

上述根本就是Adam Smith這位經濟學祖師爺早已闡述清楚的經濟現象：適用於20世紀初的福特汽車，當然也適用於21世紀初的中國新能源車。

偏偏總有些兩棲動物連這最基本的經濟學感受都不具備。到了他們口中，具備價格競爭力反倒是要亡國滅種囉。

In 1913, the Ford Model T, which introduced assembly line production, had an initial market price of $850. This was significantly cheaper than other brands of cars at the time, which ranged between $2,000 and $4,000, thus offering a strong competitive edge in the market. It quickly expanded its customer base from the affluent to the middle class. The broader market, in turn, fueled the economies of scale in assembly line production, further reducing production costs. By 1927, the price of the Model T had been driven down to $290.

Leveraging cost advantages for competitive strength in the market, Ford’s approach became a modern industrial legend recorded in history. However, in today’s Chinese new energy vehicle sector, the same cost advantage is paradoxically seen by some as indicative of “unsold goods" and “the more you sell, the more you fail."

Adam Smith’s seminal work, “The Wealth of Nations," lays the foundation for economics, clearly explaining that the scope of the market determines the extent of the division of labor (“The division of labor is limited by the extent of the market"). In turn, the degree of specialization determines cost advantages. More importantly, the cost advantages under specialized division further expand the market scope (“the division of labor gives rise to market institutions and expands the extent of the market").

China, with one of the world’s largest markets characterized by a unified language, race, and highly unified regulations, can naturally accommodate specialized divisions of labor that small markets cannot sustain, thereby gaining significant cost advantages to expand into the international market.

The aforementioned is fundamentally the economic phenomenon clearly explained by Adam Smith, the father of economics: applicable to Ford cars in the early 20th century and equally applicable to Chinese new energy vehicles in the early 21st century.

Yet, there are always some who lack even this basic economic sense. In their view, having competitive pricing is somehow equated with national doom.

1. 約莫15年前，經濟學大師張五常曾預測幾年內中國內需市場重要性將會大過出口市場，到時即便被美國貿易制裁也大可置之不理。

一個重要的經濟理論是Adam Smith 就提出的「專業分工的限度事由市場的廣度決定（Specialization is limited by the extent of the market）」

中國目前是世界140多個國家最大貿易夥伴，同時中國也是全世界唯一擁有聯合國定義所有工業項目產出的國家。Adam Smith的智慧由此可證，反之也證明中國在供應面的強大已非同日而語。

市場夠大，專業分工就可以夠細且全面；反之，夠細且全面的分工本身可以帶來巨大的成本優勢，利於更進一步拓展市場。這是一個正向循環過程。

比如中國2023年前十月新車銷售量接近3000萬輛，是第二大市場美國的2倍。這充分解釋為何中國產電動車售價相對世界多數國家物美價廉，以及銷往歐美售價高過國內售價。

2. 2019年川普政府發動貿易戰初起，我就預測美國此舉會加速中國工業升級，美國在貿易戰上只會付出巨大成本而徒勞無功。都是經濟學基本定律的應用。

如今看中國在電動車的競爭力，以及美國現今真實貿易依然高比例依賴中國（無論是made in China或made by China，帳面數據上似乎美國從中國進口少了一點，但大幅增加的墨西哥或東南亞國家供應者背後幾乎都有高比例中國企業的影子），也再次證明經濟學的科學預測力。

3. 中國市場本身自由度越高，則面對貨幣緊縮/通膨的能力越強。

換言之，坊間誇誇其談中國通縮風險如何嚴重的人，99%都是經濟低手，其言論不值一看。

如同張五常多年文章反覆提及，改革開放以來中國曾面臨長時間嚴重通貨緊縮，卻在同一段時間享有高度經濟成長，其關鍵在於市場自由度夠高，各種複雜的契約關係都能快速變換、定價。

因此只要中國繼續維持開放自由市場路線，則面對貨幣波動的韌性肯定是遠超市場相對非常不自由的歐美市場。

筆記：

商务部：10月社会消费品零售总额4.3万亿元 同比增长7.6%

人民网北京11月22日电 （记者孙红丽）11月22日，商务部消费促进司负责人谈2023年10月我国消费市场情况时表示，10月份，社会消费品零售总额4.3万亿元，同比增长7.6%，增速比9月份加快2.1个百分点，连续3个月回升；1-10月累计38.54万亿元，同比增长6.9%。

商务部消费促进司负责人指出，10月份，各级商务主管部门按照“2023消费提振年”总体安排，抓住国庆假期消费旺季有利时机，加快落实各项促消费政策措施，积极组织开展金秋购物节、家居焕新消费季、新能源汽车消费季等活动，优化消费供给，创新消费场景，提振消费信心，促进消费持续恢复和扩大。

商品消费增速加快。10月份，商品零售额同比增长6.5%，增速比上月加快1.9个百分点。户外运动、新型电子产品、新能源汽车、智能家电等升级类商品增势较好。限额以上单位体育娱乐用品、通讯器材、汽车、家电零售额同比分别增长25.7%、14.6%、11.4%和9.6%，比上月分别加快15.0、14.2、8.6和11.9个百分点。新能源汽车销量同比增长33.5%，占新车销量比重达33.5%。

服务消费较快增长。1-10月,服务零售额同比增长19.0%。在节日效应等因素带动下，住宿餐饮、文化旅游、交通出行等服务消费需求集中释放。10月份，餐饮收入4800亿元，同比增长17.1%；电影票房收入超36亿元，增长约七成；铁路旅客运输量、城市轨道交通客运量同比分别增长195.6%和55.8%。

网上零售增势较好。1-10月,网上零售额12.3万亿元，同比增长11.2%，其中实物商品网上零售额10.3万亿元，增长8.4%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重达26.7%。

实体零售持续恢复。1-10月,限额以上实体店零售额同比增长4.3%，增速比1-9月加快0.3个百分点。其中，便利店、百货店、专业店、品牌专卖店零售额同比分别增长7.3%、7.2%、4.7%和3.6%。国庆期间，全国示范步行街日均客流量同比增长87.4%，36个大中城市重点商圈日均客流量同比增长1.6倍。

城乡消费稳步增长。10月份，城镇消费品零售额3.7万亿元，同比增长7.4%；乡村消费品零售额5854亿元，增长8.9%。1-10月,城镇、乡村消费品零售额分别为33.39万亿元和5.16万亿元，同比分别增长6.8%和7.6%。

1. About 15 years ago, the esteemed economist Steven N.S. Cheung predicted that within a few years, the importance of China’s domestic market would surpass that of its export market. By then, even if subjected to trade sanctions by the United States, China could afford to disregard them. An important economic theory proposed by Adam Smith is that “the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market." Currently, China is the largest trading partner for over 140 countries and is the only country in the world that produces all industrial categories defined by the United Nations. This validates Adam Smith’s wisdom and also demonstrates that China’s supply-side capabilities have significantly evolved.

A large market allows for finer and more comprehensive specialization; conversely, such detailed and comprehensive division of labor can bring significant cost advantages, facilitating further market expansion. This creates a positive feedback loop. For instance, China’s new car sales in the first ten months of 2023 approached 30 million units, double that of the second-largest market, the United States. This adequately explains why Chinese electric vehicles are relatively more affordable compared to most countries worldwide and why they are sold at higher prices in Europe and America than in China.

2. At the onset of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration in 2019, I predicted that this move would accelerate the industrial upgrading of China and that the United States would only incur substantial costs in vain. This is all the application of basic economic laws. Today, looking at China’s competitiveness in electric vehicles, and the United States’ continued high reliance on China for trade (whether it’s made in China or made by China, although the official data may show a slight decrease in imports from China, the significantly increased supply from Mexico or Southeast Asian countries almost always involves a high proportion of Chinese enterprises), once again proves the predictive power of economics.
3. The higher the degree of market freedom in China, the stronger its ability to cope with monetary tightening/inflation. In other words, those who widely discuss the severe risk of deflation in China are 99% economically illiterate, and their statements are not worth considering. As Steven N.S. Cheung has repeatedly mentioned in his articles over the years, China has faced severe deflation for a long time since the reform and opening-up, yet it enjoyed high economic growth during the same period. The key lies in the high degree of market freedom, where various complex contractual relationships can be rapidly changed and priced. Therefore, as long as China continues to maintain an open and free market approach, its resilience to monetary fluctuations will undoubtedly far exceed that of the relatively unfree markets in Europe and America.

Note:
Ministry of Commerce: The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 4.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year
People’s Daily, Beijing, November 22 (Reporter Sun Hongli) – On November 22, a spokesperson from the Department of Consumer Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce discussed China’s consumer market situation in October 2023, stating that in October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.1 percentage points from September and rebounding for three consecutive months; from January to October, the cumulative total was 38.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year.

The spokesperson from the Department of Consumer Promotion pointed out that in October, commercial authorities at all levels, in accordance with the overall arrangements of the “2023 Year of Consumption Promotion", seized the favorable opportunity of the National Day holiday consumption peak season, accelerated the implementation of various consumer promotion policies and measures, actively organized and carried out activities such as the Golden Autumn Shopping Festival, Home Renewal Consumption Season, and New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season, optimized the supply of consumption, innovated consumption scenarios, boosted consumer confidence, and promoted the continuous recovery and expansion of consumption.

The growth rate of commodity consumption accelerated. In October, the retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Upgraded products such as outdoor sports equipment, new electronic products, new energy vehicles, and smart home appliances performed well. The retail sales of sports and entertainment goods, communication equipment, automobiles, and home appliances in above-designated-size units increased by 25.7%, 14.6%, 11.4%, and 9.6% year-on-year, respectively, accelerating by 15.0, 14.2, 8.6, and 11.9 percentage points from the previous month, respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 33.5% year-on-year, accounting for 33.5% of new car sales.

The growth of service consumption was relatively fast. From January to October, the retail sales of services increased by 19.0% year-on-year. Driven by the holiday effect and other factors,

service consumption demands such as accommodation and catering, cultural tourism, and transportation were released intensively. In October, catering revenue reached 480 billion yuan, an increase of 17.1% year-on-year; movie box office revenue exceeded 3.6 billion yuan, increasing by about 70%; railway passenger transport volume and urban rail transit passenger transport volume increased by 195.6% and 55.8% year-on-year, respectively.

Online retail sales performed well. From January to October, online retail sales reached 12.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, of which online retail sales of physical goods reached 10.3 trillion yuan, increasing by 8.4%, accounting for 26.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

Physical retail continued to recover. From January to October, the retail sales of above-designated-size physical stores increased by 4.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from January to September. Among them, retail sales of convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores, and brand stores increased by 7.3%, 7.2%, 4.7%, and 3.6% year-on-year, respectively. During the National Day holiday, the average daily passenger flow of national demonstration pedestrian streets increased by 87.4% year-on-year, and the average daily passenger flow of key business districts in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 1.6 times year-on-year.

Urban and rural consumption grew steadily. In October, urban consumer goods retail sales reached 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year; rural consumer goods retail sales reached 585.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. From January to October, urban and rural consumer goods retail sales reached 33.39 trillion yuan and 5.16 trillion yuan, respectively, an increase of 6.8% and 7.6% year-on-year, respectively.

(translated by ChatGPT)

张某，女，5岁。初诊日期：1976年10月6日。

患儿失语瘫痿两个月。今年8月患中毒性痢疾，持续高烧、昏迷、抽搐8天。经住院治疗清醒后，随之发现右半侧肢体偏废，右上肢不能高举，右手不能握物，右下肢全瘫。颈项软弱不能抬头，左侧上肢活动尚正常，下肢软弱无力。食欲不振，大便定期排出，呈球状粪便，小便尚可排出（反射性膀胱）。患者形体消瘦，面色黄，舌质淡，苔薄白，脉弦滑。右上下肢屈曲挛缩，痛觉尚存在。腹壁反射（+），右膝腱、跟腱反射亢进，巴氏征右（+），左（±）。运动功能：左下肢股四头肌肌力3级，右下肢运动功能丧失，右足内翻。西医诊断为中毒性脑病后遗症。

【处方】

方1：百会、风府、大椎、身柱、至阳、筋缩、脊中、悬枢、腰阳关、命门。

方2：王氏夹脊穴：胸2、4、6、8、10、12，腰2、4，椎旁三分。

方3：手足十二针方：曲池、内关、合谷、阳陵泉、足三里、三阴交加百会、廉泉、天突、通里。

以上3套处方，交替使用，隔日1次，12次为一疗程。

【手法】 补法。

【治疗经过】 经治1疗程后，可以扶持迈步，头可以抬起，右上肢可以活动，但仍有痉挛、言语障碍、定期排便，仍为反射性膀胱。取穴同上，在第一组方中加大杼、绝骨、照海，连续治疗两个月，患者可以独立行走，言语基本正常，但智力、思维仍迟钝，二便恢复正常，右上肢活动仍欠灵活，右足内翻。在第3组方基础上加解溪、丘墟，再针6次，完全恢复正常。

1978年4月追访时，患儿上肢活动自如，手能握物，下肢活动良好，可以跳跃；言语基本正常，偶有个别字发音不清；右足稍显内翻，二便正常。检查病理反射消失，两侧生理反射基本对称，临床痊愈。

—–

方1为「疏通督脉，补髓健脑」
方2为「疏导阳气，调理脏腑」
方3为「疏通经络，调和阴阳」

回顧2018年的公投，結果是就算「以核養綠」公投通過（同意得票589萬5560票，占54.42%；不同意得票401萬4215票，占37.05%），政府不理你也沒有任何法律和政治責任。

如同許多經濟學家證明過的觀點：民主制度不但不能更有效率的糾錯，往往反而是累積不切實際期待的錯誤製造機。

例如美國川普以降的聯邦政府幻想提高關稅可以打贏貿易戰一樣，經濟學無知兼白癡。

我們也早就說過，美國談「貿易赤字」本身就是可笑的假議題，因為如果美國如果希望讓美元繼續是國際貿易主要貨幣，則必然要發行遠高過美國自己國內所需的貨幣量，並將之推到國際。

而此過程必然發生貿易赤字，不然美國以外的國家要怎麼拿到美元？

看到此本質，就會發現美國政客（包括兩黨現在智庫的主流論述）都是希望透過不斷提高關稅直到貿易平衡是多麼荒謬的想法。可是可見的未來，既然此觀點是橫跨兩黨的主流論述，那麼無論哪邊當選大概率都會繼續如此。本期經濟學人對此現象有相當篇幅報導。

經濟學當然也預見了這樣愚蠢政策的結果，站在中國這邊，自然是樂見其成。

中國前三季出口年增0.6%

進口年減1.2%

用電量年增加5.6%

聲稱GDP增長 5.2%

美國2023年前三季出口年增1.1％

進口年減4.3％

用電量年減少5.37%

聲稱GDP增加 2%

關於GDP對應國家經濟增長的觀點，我以前已經詳談過，不再重複。簡單說三個重點：

1. 現代GDP計算方法有幾種，主流概念不外乎：
   C + I + G + (X – M)
   私人支出＋投資＋政府支出＋（出口-進口）
   
   我批評過，此公式內涵「重商主義」的偏見，錯認「出口比進口好」。
   
   但我也談過，其實統計方法與魔鬼細節事實上讓GDP的絕對數值本身並沒有太多經濟學意義可供討論，例如就有論者認為，中國如果套用美國統計方式，現有GDP要翻倍，因為有太多中國不列入GDP計算項目，但美國是列入的，例如
   
   可是一者現在似乎沒有更好的國家層面經濟統計方式；再者，GDP統計在長期趨勢上還是有相當參考性。
   
2. 同樣照骨科小腿脛骨腓骨X光，根據最近一起會議的美國醫師表示大約$1000美元，而在中國三甲醫院費用約$100人民幣。前者是後者約70倍價格，但在真實經濟活動產出真的有70倍嗎？換言之，稍有經濟邏輯者都會發現，前者存在高比例通貨膨脹與制度費用於其中，並非美國醫生同樣的一次診療活動就真的產出70倍於中國醫生。
   （三年前我所知美國此費用約在$250~400美元之間）
   
   這也代表美國GDP產出存在多少「澎風」現象？是值得思考的問題。
   
   而對經濟學了解更多一點的人會想到，根據要素平價理論、比較優勢定律等思維，這意味著在國際貿易活動下，兩地價格如果不能趨近，就會反應在「貨幣價格」與「交易數量」二者上。降低整體交易費用有助減輕這樣的動態平衡中可能的死傷，但美國一系列反自由市場的制裁舉措，增加的整體交易費用最後幾乎都必須由美國人民來買單大部分。這樣的論點我也反覆談了好幾年，許多實證研究也支持美國人民的確負擔更重。（例如此篇研究就指出美國進口商負擔了93%的對中貿易戰關稅）
   
3. 實際用電量在某些角度是觀察一個國家經濟活動更好的指標，因為電力幾乎是現今社會幾乎所有經濟活動的必須生產要素之一。
   
   我們可以數據圖看到美國從2000年之後事實電力消費成長是近乎停滯的。同時期中國電力消費卻仍相對高速增長。
   

此外2020~2022年，美國政府支出佔GDP高達48%、44%、37%，考量美國政府還有很多作帳隱瞞政府開支的壞記錄，我相信前述比例只會更高不會低。

相對中國政府支出佔GDP 2012年以來始終徘徊在15~16%。

簡單總結，我住在北京所觀察到的一般民眾食衣住行價格變化與人潮，看不出來經濟崩潰可能性。反之，我在美國的同學朋友所分享描述，我相當懷疑拜登政府任內的美國經濟數字真實性。姑且不談美國政府是否造假（雖然美國政府此類劣跡罄竹難書），但現在可見的數字，應該是與真實經濟樣貌相去甚遠。