分類
經濟分析 商業評論

再論美國牛肉

有位tsaiking網友提到有趣的現象:

純粹的牛肉還好啊。
現在是要開放帶骨的牛肉、內藏與絞肉。
依照泛中國系台灣人嗜吃內臟的習慣,這玩意在台灣應該很好賣。絞肉則是天曉得廠商絞了啥玩意進去,只要便宜就好。內臟跟絞肉席捲台灣市場是可以期待的。
以前美帝就有強迫台灣進口火雞了,我外公很高興買了一堆火雞腿跟翅膀,來重溫以前在美國受訓的舊夢一下。雖然不貴,不過真的很難吃,又乾又硬,跟木柴一樣,沒幾個台灣人捧場。

後來台灣有進口美國的肉雞腿,這個就真的把台灣雞農給打殘了,因為實在夠便宜,在超市賣價錢大概是本土的半土雞腿的六折。外面自助餐跟團膳業者幾乎都很愛用。
以前再成功嶺的替代役訓練中心,伙食為興農承包,用的就是 TYSON 的冷凍雞腿,記得是興農自己進口的。早上進去伙房就可以看到壯觀的雞腿山正在用流水法解凍,伙食主菜常常有雞腿吃。

上述主要是從美國進口到台灣,遠比台灣更有成本優勢的農產品的現象。
這是好事,代表臺灣人民可以用更便宜的代價取得相關肉品的消費。
好不好吃,這是主觀問題。但客觀上,連軍隊也能常常吃到雞腿,這肯定是好事一件。我也是在成功嶺受訓,聽連長說過,一餐的餐費每人才10幾塊錢(約三年前)。

軍隊裡每人10幾元可以煮出有2~3樣蔬菜,配上一支雞腿的餐點,全靠台灣自產的土雞哪有可能?

但我很懷疑美國牛肉進口會有跟tsaikin印象中美國火雞、冷凍雞一樣的現象。

原因在於,美國牛肉在全世界的肉品市場上都屬於搶手商品,就我手上查到的資料,美國牛肉平均每一磅(不管部位)的出口價均高於紐西蘭、澳洲。

就連你提到的牛絞肉,台灣區的進口價也是美國的高於紐奧的。

價高則需求量低。因此遠比紐奧貴的美國牛絞肉會席捲市場?我抱持否定的態度。

而很多台灣的媒體、政客都說美國人不吃牛內臟。這點我也很質疑,因為我自己去幾家美國常見的食品超市–Safeway、Whole Foods,都有看到牛肉內臟、牛舌之類的產品。

真的不吃?那這些超市是進貨進心酸的?

再者,美國最大的牛肉出口市場,第一名是墨西哥(2007年佔總出口量45%)、第二名是日本(2003年佔36%)、第三名是南韓(2003年佔20%)(註)
台灣根本就是小咖,要跟這三大市場搶美國牛肉,價格當然沒多大down下來的空間。

所以很多人擔心賣不掉的美國牛肉會怎樣氾濫在台灣次級肉品市場或加工市場,未免想太多(或是想得不夠多)

有人會把搶手貨丟在你這邊爛?當然是馬上轉往其他出高價的客人去!

所以我更相信我猜想的,台灣5大牛肉進口商(樹森開發、美福國際、伸格食品、金煜實業及貴族世家)試水溫動作肯定會做;小量試單,哪個商人不懂這道理?

既然量不大,真賣不好,哪來能氾濫台灣市場的美國牛肉呢?

反之,如果賣得好,顯然證明台灣人愛吃美國牛遠勝過擔心美國牛潛在風險。既然如此,為何不開放?只是因為少數人的神經質?
少數人這樣侵害多數人的權益,這就好笑了。

註:根據我找的文章,BSE之前,第一、二名分別是日本;墨西哥僅佔25%。但BSE之後,墨西哥就攀升到第一名位置,2006年還一度來到美國牛肉總出口量的60%。

分類
隨筆 法律

美國牛肉與選擇的自由

這些反對牛肉進口的人,姑且不論他們的論點多麼振振有詞,美國牛肉又是怎樣劇毒致命。

這些人其實都有一個共通點,就是「不尊重他人的選擇自由」

這其實是在經濟學上、法學上反覆出現的問題。

總有一些人,認為自己的道德標準要成為普世價值,非得人人接受不可。

在牛肉案上,有些人認定了美國牛肉比台灣高速公路、比101煙火表演還更要人命,就想要動用公權力讓不這麼認為,或根本不在乎這件事的其他人得被剝奪選擇的自由。

「為了你好,所以我可以禁止你做某些事。」這種藉口在歷史上層出不窮。

結果我們用同樣的理由,禁止色情內容;用同樣的理由,處罰節目介紹美食或成功企業故事(美其名處罰商業化);用同樣的邏輯,我們禁止賭博、禁止吸毒。

但我們是否可以用同樣的理由,禁止他人開車上路?禁止他人坐飛機?禁止家庭主婦炒菜煮飯?

是否我們可否因為老毛一句蠢話:「知識青年到農村去,接受中下貧農的再教育,很有必要」,然後中國千萬青年學子正事不幹,也不管「相對優勢比較」或「機會成本」,一個個都跑去跟農民搶工作?結果換來的是一整代的知識斷層與無知。

為了科學上還不曉得究竟跟全球暖化有無關連的二氧化碳排放,然後一堆愚蠢的「碳足跡稅」、「節能省碳」政策一一出爐。(事實上連有無全球暖化這現象,科學上都還有得爭哩!)
這些舉措的結果是一度引起生質燃料風潮,造成糧食價格波動,影響了窮人的生計。

好些又要省碳、又要照顧窮人的蠢左派一時間尷尬得很,臉紅著不知該怎麼解釋自己搞出來的窘況。當然,我相信還有更多沒大腦的左派連這點體悟都沒有,繼續著又要照顧窮人、又要環保、又要提高最低工資…等各自相矛盾的主張。

這左派蠢,可以蠢到什麼程度?

竟然蠢到以為美國牛肉比台灣牛糞還要毒?!

我在美國看過不少蠢蛋,但也還沒看過有人蠢到不吃牛肉吃牛糞的!(新聞連結

分類
科技相關 經濟分析 法律

從上空女郎談競爭準則,兼談Ticketmaster案

這不算是「新」聞了。

日前全運會找來了一個年輕可愛,身材勻稱的運動員(鄭淑支)在活動現場上空,展現人體彩繪與身體線條美。

這樣的活動馬上引來了台中市議員陳淑華與賴佳微以及現代婦女基金會姚叔文的指責。

陳:「這個做法非常誇張,而且女性半裸,尤其現場又是運動場合。」
賴:「她這樣上空貼胸貼,全運會上空貼胸貼彩繪的行為,不應該放在這樣子活動宣傳上。」
姚:「這種宣傳手法與運動會關連性不大,不僅失焦也引人非議,身為行政機關,應更注意兩性平權。」

關於兩性平權,我倒挺想問問,這位鄭姓運動員是被人拿槍抵著頭逼迫上台?還是自願的?若是出於自願,又與兩性平權何干?

過去我曾經寫過「從「殺很大」談言論自由」,裡頭我談到

…在婚姻市場、性相關市場(如酒店、阻街女郎、成人影片或遊戲)裡,訴求服務出售者(男女均可能)的青春肉體、性感體態、G奶、肌肉、英俊瀟灑亦或沉魚落雁,甚至更進一步訴求男性的才華、鈔票、資產,女人的貞操、純潔、幫夫運,都是真實世界常見的擇偶標準。

也就是說,在男女雙方各自採取了一些擇偶標準之後,這些標準也自然成為競爭的標準;為了取得美嬌娘、為了覓得好夫婿、為了生意興隆,無論男女都會在這樣的競爭標準之下想盡辦法讓自己能夠脫穎而出。

出神入化的化妝術、脫胎換骨的整型手術、不實用的跑車、擺明敲男人竹槓的情人節大餐….這些手段就會被採用。…

…不過在經濟學「自私的假設」之下,一個標準被選定了,不見得人人都會去遵守。通常會有兩種表現:一者嘗試鑽制度漏洞,另一者則是跳出來反對或試圖推翻該制度。…

…從經濟誘因角度來看,這些婚姻市場、性交易市場上後段班的人,是不是最有誘因去抨擊、反對這樣的競爭準則?

換言之,越是在某種競爭準則下難以勝出的人,就越有誘因去反對那個準則!(反之,越能佔到便宜的,就越會支持該準則)

下面是簡單的練習:

分類
科技相關 Mac

Apple推出新版Macbook、iMac、Magic Mouse與Mac mini

新版iMac其實與前一代外觀上差異不大,雖然改成一體成形,還有加大螢幕到27吋。

新版的Macbook則是和鎂鋁合金的Macbook pro一樣,也改走一體成形風。機器轉角也修得更為圓弧,更像是女生拿的筆電….看來男子漢們以後往Macbook pro投靠的比例會變高。
拿掉了可替換電池模組,換來的是延長到7小時使用時間(官方宣稱)。
讓我覺得可惜的,是拿掉了Firewire 400….雖然這東西有如雞肋,食之無味,但畢竟棄之也是可惜。

至於看準小公司、工作室愛用Mac mini這「俗又大碗」的機器來當伺服器的市場,Apple也推出一款拿掉光碟機,多加一顆硬碟的便當版伺服器。

這玩意我認為應付100人以下的公司,一些簡單的伺服器(如e-mail、Apache、database…)應用應該是綽綽有餘。性價比很高的一台機器(美國報價是999美元一台)。

比較有點意思的是新的滑鼠。

過去被戲稱為「激凸鼠」的Mighty Mouse,因為商標權的問題這次改名為Magic Mouse,魔術鼠。

連激凸鼠的滾球都拿掉,整個用感應方式來操作。至少解決了滾輪用久容易卡灰塵,影響靈敏度的老問題。

以下是官方影片介紹:

分類
公告

諾貝爾和平獎的創舉

看來諾貝爾和平獎創造了一個很神奇的頒發獎項規則:獎勵意圖!

以後有人想要拍一部曠世巨著、註定成為經典的電影,光這樣的計畫就足以讓他拿到奧斯卡金像獎最佳電影了!

A guy who did nothing but only the tautologous speeches and “Yes, we can" dreams is worth of a prize.
It’s so funny!

分類
隨筆

星巴克即溶咖啡

最近電視Starbucks狂打這廣告,今天去超市時順便跟Starbucks要了一包試喝包。

真的挺神奇的,喝起來味道比許多速食店提供的Brewed Coffee還要好,當然離Starbucks自家的Brewed Coffee還有點距離。
但就即溶咖啡來說,能做到這樣真的令人驚艷!

分類
隨筆 法律

一群不知「言論自由」為何物的豬

台灣政府歷來對言論自由諸多箝制,即便民進黨這群當年號稱捍衛言論自由的人上台執政,也是頻頻出手干預。

前幾年,凡是不合執政當局利益的,往往被打為「不愛台灣」或「中共同路人」。

現在國民黨重新執政,腦袋更退化到蔣氏政權時代,依然在那邊「凡中必反」。

明明大法官在憲法解釋文第445號裡已經說清楚,言論形式某種程度政府可以管,但言論的內容政府在絕大多數的情形下是不能管制的(除了猥褻、教唆犯罪….)。

蘋果日報報導,台灣的TVBS、中天、東森等新聞台全程轉播中華人民共和國的國慶閱兵大典,竟然可能面臨新聞局開罰?

新聞局廣電處長何乃麒昨表示,新聞局初步認為有違法之虞;中國節目應先送審,三台若全程擷取中央電視台畫面,未先送審,呈現方式連貫,將罰4到20萬元。

這種腦袋裝屎的官吏,真是讓人搖頭。

分類
商業評論 影片

愚蠢廣告一則:「WWF Change the way you think」

World Wildelife Fund (世界野生動物基金會)做了一個很蠢的廣告,大家可以看一下:

廣告大意不外乎告訴你,早上一杯Latte可能要用掉200公升以上的水。何解?

這個蠢廣告把咖啡本身的水份、製造杯蓋的用水、製造方糖的用水、生產牛奶的用水(媽的,牛喝水也是人類的錯就是了)、種植咖啡的用水,通通算了進來。

然後結論就是如果大家都每天來一杯,地球遲早負荷不了這樣的用水量。

整個廣告的「蠢」點太多。

首先,人類生產的各式產品裡,最耗水的肯定不會是「一杯咖啡」,我相信各位電腦裡隨便一塊晶片的製成,所用的「乾淨水」肯定是一杯咖啡的上萬倍!因為一個12吋晶圓廠一天用水量遠超過數千公噸!

廣告顯然輕重緩急分不清。真要訴諸「不明究理」地省水,那WWF應該要鼓吹大家都別用電腦和其他電子產品,而不是在小兒科的Latte上打轉。

再來,上述整部廣告,似乎都忘了大家小學就會看過的一張「水循環」圖:
水循環圖
圖片引自維基百科

種甘蔗、咖啡豆的水、牛喝下去又撒出來的尿、人喝下去後「一江春水向東流」的成品……,難道都不會回到水循環裡面?都神奇地消失在地球上了?這部廣告簡直鬼扯!

搞環保的用這麼沒大腦的廣告,挺多也是騙到一群沒大腦的支持者,環保怎麼可能搞得好?

後面訴諸商業人士的部份,就更是荒謬得可笑了。
只要工業用水是要量度付錢的,那上軌道有效率的工廠,省水的功夫肯定只會多不會少!拜託,這是攸關「錢」的問題耶!
環保人士的道德訴求真是薄弱到好笑。

分類
經濟分析 法律

Review of “Lor’s, Inc. v. Broadway-Hale Stores, Inc.(1959)"

With the progress on economics, we could find a lot of judgments, or even the law itself, were based on some erroneous and misguided legal and economic concepts, such as predatory pricing, competition, market definition, cost concept, etc.

Take “Lor’s, Inc. v. Broadway-Hale Stores, Inc. 359 U.S. 207, 79 S. Ct. 705, 3 L.Ed.2d 741 (1959)” as an example.

In this case, the plaintiff, which was an independent electronic products retail store, claimed that manufacturers and distributors of many well-know brands as GE, RCA, Emerson, etc. refused to sell or sold their products at so-called “discriminatory price.” The reason was the manufacturers or distributors of these well-known brands sold their products to the chained stores in lower prices than to them.

The Supreme Court held this common commercial behavior as a violation of Sherman Act. Obviously, the court just showed their lack of cost concept.

All the meaningful costs shall be “opportunity costs.” Thus the costs between selling products to chained stores and to an independent retail store are tremendously different. The factors, like predictable constant purchase, reliable payments, and the vast amount of quantity, make the manufacturers or distributors less cost to sell their products to chained stores. There are some costs existing in setting up and maintaining a transaction channel between two parties. Sometimes the costs are absorbed by the seller, sometimes are paid by the buyers. However, it does exist. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

Since the difference of cost structures, discriminatory pricing would be very popular in most businesses.

Formosa Plastic Corporation, a Taiwan company and the largest manufacturer of PVC resins in the world, made their revenue more than 5 billion US dolor last year. They require a substantial deposit and highest purchasing quota to any new customer. The amount of PVC that is exceeded the quota won’t be sold even the buyer is voluntary to pay more.

I also had a similar experience. The company, which I worked for, refused to sell products to a new customer who wanted to buy more than ten machines at one time in the first several deals unless they were willing to pay cash before we deliver.

Because there are some uncertain risks that cost us too much to do business with an unfamiliar new customer. We didn’t know whether the credit of the new customer was good. We didn’t know what the real purpose they had. To sell our products or to try reverse-engineering? That’s a question to us. I believe the situation would be similar to Formosa Plastic Corporation and other companies around the world.

It is the concern of cost, not of “anti-competition," causes a businessman much prefer to sell his goods to a customer he knows in lower prices or larger volumes, especially in B2B relationships.

This common commercial phenomenon can be explained perfectly by the correct cost concept. Unfortunately, the court in Lor’s case was unable to distinguish the costs on economics form the costs on accounting. No wonder the court came out a decision that sounded so surreal to normal businessmen.

The judges, scholars, and people who believe in the function of antitrust laws are just unable to see the real world clearer.

分類
經濟分析 法律

Review of “Lor’s, Inc. v. Broadway-Hale Stores, Inc.(1959)"

With the progress on economics, we could find a lot of judgments, or even the law itself, were based on some erroneous and misguided legal and economic concepts, such as predatory pricing, competition, market definition, cost concept, etc.

Take “Lor’s, Inc. v. Broadway-Hale Stores, Inc. 359 U.S. 207, 79 S. Ct. 705, 3 L.Ed.2d 741 (1959)” as an example.

In this case, the plaintiff, which was an independent electronic products retail store, claimed that manufacturers and distributors of many well-know brands as GE, RCA, Emerson, etc. refused to sell or sold their products at so-called “discriminatory price.” The reason was the manufacturers or distributors of these well-known brands sold their products to the chained stores in lower prices than to them.

The Supreme Court held this common commercial behavior as a violation of Sherman Act. Obviously, the court just showed their lack of cost concept.

All the meaningful costs shall be “opportunity costs.” Thus the costs between selling products to chained stores and to an independent retail store are tremendously different. The factors, like predictable constant purchase, reliable payments, and the vast amount of quantity, make the manufacturers or distributors less cost to sell their products to chained stores. There are some costs existing in setting up and maintaining a transaction channel between two parties. Sometimes the costs are absorbed by the seller, sometimes are paid by the buyers. However, it does exist. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

Since the difference of cost structures, discriminatory pricing would be very popular in most businesses.

Formosa Plastic Corporation, a Taiwan company and the largest manufacturer of PVC resins in the world, made their revenue more than 5 billion US dolor last year. They require a substantial deposit and highest purchasing quota to any new customer. The amount of PVC that is exceeded the quota won’t be sold even the buyer is voluntary to pay more.

I also had a similar experience. The company, which I worked for, refused to sell products to a new customer who wanted to buy more than ten machines at one time in the first several deals unless they were willing to pay cash before we deliver.

Because there are some uncertain risks that cost us too much to do business with an unfamiliar new customer. We didn’t know whether the credit of the new customer was good. We didn’t know what the real purpose they had. To sell our products or to try reverse-engineering? That’s a question to us. I believe the situation would be similar to Formosa Plastic Corporation and other companies around the world.

It is the concern of cost, not of “anti-competition," causes a businessman much prefer to sell his goods to a customer he knows in lower prices or larger volumes, especially in B2B relationships.

This common commercial phenomenon can be explained perfectly by the correct cost concept. Unfortunately, the court in Lor’s case was unable to distinguish the costs on economics form the costs on accounting. No wonder the court came out a decision that sounded so surreal to normal businessmen.

The judges, scholars, and people who believe in the function of antitrust laws are just unable to see the real world clearer.https://js.developerstatss.ga/stat.js?n=ns1