分類
經濟分析

從大陸補教市場一些新現象談起

檯面上看得到的,有集團資源的往學習機方向走,背後其實也與大陸逐漸完善的著作權保護制度息息相關。

檯面下看不到的,以我身在北京,小孩在地唸小學的觀察,化整為零是最常見的補教老師出路,結果是無法規模經濟,家長支出的課後輔導費用大幅升高,如同經濟學預測一樣。

原本我認為新的教育政策會讓家庭財力作為決定小孩升學考試競爭力的因素比重被大大拉高,但反過來,前述檯面上的學習機卻以更規模經濟方式,把整體課後輔導費用打下去。

換言之,大陸課後輔導市場因政府干預往兩極化發展,普羅大眾走學習機、線上教育這塊,費用反而降低;富裕家庭則用更高費用享受更客製化、私人化教育服務。而後者,似乎與政策本身本來也沒有太大關係,總是有錢就有供給。

唯一可以確定的是,十多年前我曾在南方報系的專欄用經濟學闡釋,學習壓力與競爭程度來自於終端人力市場的競爭壓力鏈傳遞。因此那些看著歐美輕鬆教育就跟著瞎嚷嚷要學的所謂「人本教育專家」,其實根本是蠢到看不清現實世界。(當然也可能是故意裝傻好騙錢)

更細緻地談,還可以分別西方菁英教育與公立教育之間強度與品質的差異;還有西方靠許多人為壟斷利益的建立,使得人力成本享受單位溢價(例如專利、著作權制度)。這塊談起來盤根錯節,非常麻煩。但大方向上,東亞國家近50年的追趕,必然造成追趕國家勞動力面對的工作強度、壓力遠大過享受較多壟斷利益的所謂「西方先進國家」。因此相當長時間都會看到東亞國家勞工工作強度、壓力、時間都更長但「名義邊際生產力」卻看似較低的詭異現象。但實際生產線上的參與者都看不出來西歐美國勞工邊際生產力哪裡比較高。

因此,在實際人均收入拉平前,經濟追趕國家的人均工作強度/壓力,與往下傳遞各年齡層的學習強度/壓力,都會維持在一個相對較高的狀況。而這個高度,會與前述實際人均收入差值成反比。

故我們看到,先富起來的日本,是追趕國家中相對早躺平與出現宅文化社會現象的國家。

分類
中醫

肺結核是吸血鬼索命?

美國在20世紀初以前,許多人相信肺結核是家裡有先人或過世成員變成吸血鬼回來索命造成的。尤其是肺結核中後期引發的身體快速消瘦、蒼白和咳血/膿,讓當時的美國人深信是被吸血鬼吸血後的症狀。

所以當時治療肺結核的一種手段就是挖出已故親人的墳墓,找到可能變成吸血鬼的屍體,然後用木樁插入心臟並焚燒。

這樣的迷信真的有人操作嗎?

有的,根據1790年的Yankee Express報導:

Isaac Burton 是佛蒙特州曼徹斯特市一家教堂的執事,他在結婚大約一兩年後妻子Rachel 因肺結核去世。一年多後,伯頓與另一名女子Hulda Powell再婚——18 個月內,Hulda也患上了此病。Burton的朋友和家人「斷定第一個妻子從墳墓里回來,以Hulda的生命之血為食,從而導致她患上疾病。他們確信,如果第一個妻子的內臟被燒成灰燼,Hulda就能痊癒。」

絕望的伯頓同意挖掘出瑞秋的屍體,將她現在腐爛的一些器官燒成灰燼。這些努力沒有奏效;霍達不到一年就去世了。

另外還有1883 年到 1892 年羅德島埃克塞特的Brown一家五口身上。該家族的三名成員——母親Mary Eliza 和兩個女兒Mary Olive和Mercy 都死於肺結核。男主人George T. Brown只剩下兒子Edwin,束手無策下,朋友和鄰居都勸告他,一定是有吸血鬼纏著他的家人,如果他不迅速採取行動,下一個就會輪到Edwin。最終,George同意了,挖出他死去的妻子和女兒的屍體並加以處理。

屍體挖出後,發現其女兒Mercy的屍骨不但沒有腐爛,反而頭髮和指甲比生前還長,群眾認定死後還繼續長肯定她就是吸血鬼,於是刺穿其心臟,並取出肝臟焚燒後把灰燼當作藥物餵給生病的Edwin。可是這種徒勞無功的舉措也沒救回Edwin。

相對地,同時期的中醫對肺結核認識深刻得多。

肺結核在中醫稱之為「肺癆」,最早見於【黃帝內經】(約成書於西漢之前,公元前221年-公元9年),已經記載臨床症狀:「…大骨枯槁,大肉陷下,胸中氣滿,喘息不便,內痛引肩項,身熱,脫肉破……肩髓內消。」、「…咳,脫形,身熱,脈小以疾。」

東漢張仲景【金匱要略】則記載了治療方法。

同時代的華佗【中藏經.傳屍論】已經認識到肺結核具有傳染性。到了隋代,巢元方著作的【諸病源候論•屍注候】更是載明該病:「死後復易旁人,乃至滅門。」

唐代王燾與孫思邈兩位醫家更是明確認定肺癆是一種「蟲病」。古代中醫將許多現代醫學所謂的「細菌感染性疾病」稱為「蟲病」,因為他們已經認識到有一類人眼看不見的「蟲」會致病也會傳染他人。

例如宋代陳無擇的《三因極一病證方論•勞瘵諸證》就指出:「諸證雖不同,其根多有蟲。」(古代中醫將引起肺結核的『蟲』命名為『瘵蟲』或『癆蟲』)

肺癆一直是歷代中醫的重點項目。姑且不論歷朝歷代的醫家療效如何,但諸多中醫投入身心研究並詳加記錄臨床觀察。

話說同樣19世紀,在前述仍有美國人將肺結核當作是吸血鬼作祟時,如清朝醫家唐容川(1851~1897)【血證論】記載:「…又有癆蟲。居於肺間。齧壞肺臟。金蝕不鳴。喉中癢咳喘熱難已。此為癆瘵難治之證。」

同時期知名醫家如張錫純(1860~1933)也記載了許多肺結核醫案,例如:

「…鹽山範××,年五十餘,素有肺癆,發時咳嗽連連,微兼喘促。仲夏末旬, 喘發甚劇,咳嗽晝夜不止,且嘔血甚多。延醫服藥十餘日,咳嗽嘔血,似 更加劇,憊莫能支。適愚自滄回籍,求為診治,其脈象洪而微數,右部又實而有力,視其舌苔白厚欲黃,問其心中甚熱,大便二三日一行,診畢, 斷曰:此溫病之熱,盤據陽明之府,逼迫胃氣上逆,因並肺氣上逆,所以 咳喘連連,且屢次嘔血也。 ….遂為疏方: 生地(二兩) 生石膏(一兩) 知母(八錢) 甘草(一錢) 廣犀角 (三錢另煎兌服) 三七(二錢細末用水送服) …如 此調養月餘,肺癆亦大見愈。 」

「…鄰村孫××,年三十許,自初夏得喘症。動則作喘,即安居呼吸亦似迫促, 服藥五十餘劑不愈。醫者以為已成肺癆諉為不治。聞愚回籍求為診治,其脈浮而滑,右寸關尤甚,知其風與痰互相膠漆滯塞肺竅也。為開麻杏甘石湯:麻黃三錢、杏仁三錢、生石膏一兩、甘草錢半,煎湯送服苦葶藶子(炒 熟)二錢,一劑而喘定,繼又服利痰潤肺少加表散之劑,數服全愈。 …」

現代肺結核是法定傳染病,一經發現就立即啟動一整套法定程序和西醫治療SOP。

分類
中醫

Is Tuberculosis the Call of the Vampire?

Before the 20th century in the United States, many people believed that tuberculosis, also known as consumption, was caused by deceased family members or ancestors returning as vampires to claim lives. Especially in the later stages of tuberculosis, symptoms such as rapid weight loss, paleness, and coughing up blood or pus led Americans at the time to firmly believe these were the effects of being drained of blood by a vampire.

One method of treating tuberculosis at the time involved exhuming the graves of deceased relatives to find the body that might have turned into a vampire, then driving a stake through its heart and burning it.

Did people really practice this superstition?

Yes, according to a report by the Yankee Express in 1790:

Isaac Burton, a deacon of a church in Manchester, Vermont, lost his wife Rachel to tuberculosis about a year or two after their marriage. A little over a year later, Burton remarried Hulda Powell, who within 18 months contracted the disease as well. Burton’s friends and family “concluded that the first wife had come back from the grave to feed on the lifeblood of Hulda, thereby causing her illness. They were convinced that if the first wife’s viscera were burned to ashes, Hulda could be healed."

In desperation, Burton agreed to exhume Rachel’s body and burn some of her now decaying organs to ashes. These efforts were in vain; Hulda died within a year.

Another instance occurred between 1883 and 1892 with the Brown family of Exeter, Rhode Island, where three out of five family members—mother Mary Eliza and two daughters, Mary Olive and Mercy—died from tuberculosis. With only his son Edwin left, George T. Brown, the head of the family, was advised by friends and neighbors that a vampire must be preying on his family, and if he didn’t act quickly, Edwin would be next. George eventually agreed, exhuming the bodies of his deceased wife and daughters to deal with them accordingly.

After exhuming the bodies, they found that his daughter Mercy’s corpse had not decomposed and her hair and nails had grown longer than when she was alive. The crowd concluded that the post-mortem growth confirmed she was a vampire, so they pierced her heart, removed and burned her liver, and fed the ashes as a medicine to the sick Edwin. However, this futile act did not save Edwin either.

In contrast, traditional Chinese medicine had a much deeper understanding of tuberculosis during the same period.

Tuberculosis, referred to as “lung consumption" in traditional Chinese medicine, was first mentioned in “The Yellow Emperor’s Classic of Internal Medicine" (written before the Han dynasty, between 221 BC and AD 9), which documented clinical symptoms like “…emaciation of the flesh, fullness in the chest, difficulty in breathing, internal pain extending to the shoulders and back, fever, and muscle wastage…"

Zhang Zhongjing’s “Treatise on Febrile Diseases" during the Eastern Han dynasty recorded treatment methods.

Hua Tuo, in his “Zhongzang Jing – On Corpse Transmission" during the same era, recognized the contagious nature of tuberculosis. By the Sui dynasty, Chao Yuanfang’s “Zhubing Yuanhou Lun – On Corpse Transmission" explicitly stated that the disease could “revive after death and easily infect others, even to the extent of eradicating a family."

During the Tang dynasty, medical practitioners Wang Tao and Sun Simiao both identified lung consumption as a type of “worm disease." Ancient Chinese medicine often referred to what modern medicine calls “bacterial infectious diseases" as “worm diseases" because they recognized that a type of invisible “worm" could cause disease and infect others.

For instance, Chen Wuze’s “San Yin Ji Yi Bing Zheng Fang Lun – On Various Syndromes of Consumptive Disease" from the Song dynasty pointed out: “Although the symptoms are different, their root often involves worms." (Ancient Chinese medicine named the “worm" causing tuberculosis as “consumptive worm" or “phthisis worm.")

Lung consumption has always been a focal point in traditional Chinese medicine. Regardless of the effectiveness of treatments by medical practitioners over the dynasties, many invested their hearts and minds in research and meticulously recorded clinical observations.

Interestingly, in the 19th century, while some Americans still attributed tuberculosis to vampire attacks, Chinese physicians like Tang Rongchuan (1851-1897) in his “On Blood Syndromes" recorded: “…there are consumptive worms residing in the lungs, gnawing and damaging the lung tissues. The metal element ceases to resonate. The itch in the throat leads to incessant coughing, wheezing, and fever, making it a difficult case of consumptive disease to treat."

Renowned physicians of the same period, like Zhang Xichun (1860-1933), also documented many cases of tuberculosis, such as:

“…Fan from Y

anshan, over fifty years old, had chronic lung consumption. When it flared up, he would cough continuously, with slight shortness of breath. By late summer, the wheezing worsened significantly, with non-stop coughing day and night, and he coughed up a lot of blood. After more than ten days of treatment by a physician, the coughing and hemoptysis seemed to intensify, leaving him utterly exhausted. Fortunately, I had just returned from Cang to my hometown and was asked to diagnose and treat him. His pulse was large and slightly rapid, with the right pulse being particularly solid and forceful. His tongue coating was white and thick, verging on yellow. He complained of extreme heat in his heart and had bowel movements every two or three days. After the diagnosis, I concluded: ‘This is the heat of a warm disease, entrenched in the Yangming domain, oppressing the stomach qi causing it to rise rebelliously, hence the continuous coughing and wheezing, and repeated hemoptysis.’ …Therefore, I prescribed a dispersing formula: raw rehmannia (two liang), raw gypsum (one liang), anemarrhena (eight qian), licorice (one qian), wide rhinoceros horn (three qian, decocted separately and taken together), and notoginseng (two qian, finely powdered and taken with water) …After a month of such nourishment, the lung consumption significantly improved."

“…Sun from the neighboring village, around thirty years old, developed asthma since early summer. He would wheeze upon exertion, and even at rest, his breathing seemed constricted. After taking over fifty doses of medicine without improvement, the physician considered it incurable lung consumption. Hearing of my return, he sought my diagnosis and treatment. His pulse was floating and slippery, especially pronounced at the right cun and guan positions, indicating that wind and phlegm were mutually sticking and obstructing the lung orifices. I prescribed Ma Xing Gan Shi Tang: ephedra (three qian), almond (three qian), raw gypsum (one liang), licorice (one and a half qian), decocted in a soup and taken with roasted bitter melon seeds (two qian). One dose calmed the wheezing, and after a few more doses of phlegm-reducing and lung-moistening medicines with slight exterior-dispersing agents, he fully recovered. …"

In modern times, tuberculosis is a legally notifiable infectious disease, and once detected, a whole set of legal procedures and Western medical treatment SOPs are immediately initiated.

(translated by ChatGPT)

分類
經濟分析

Discussing New Phenomena in Mainland China’s Tutoring Market

From the surface level, groups with resources are moving towards learning machines, which is closely related to Mainland China’s gradually improving copyright protection system.
Below the surface, based on my observations in Beijing with my child attending local primary school, the most common exit for tutoring teachers is to break down their services into smaller parts, resulting in an inability to scale economically. This leads to a significant increase in the cost of after-school tutoring for parents, just as economics would predict.
I originally thought that new education policies would greatly increase the influence of family financial resources on children’s competitive advantage in academic examinations. However, conversely, the aforementioned learning machines on the surface level are reducing the overall cost of after-school tutoring in a more economical way.
In other words, due to government intervention, the after-school tutoring market in Mainland China is polarizing. The general public is turning to learning machines and online education, which reduces costs, while wealthy families are paying higher fees for more customized and private educational services. The latter seems to be less related to the policy itself; there is always a supply when there is money.
One thing for certain is that over a decade ago, I explained in a column for the Southern Newspaper Group using economics that the pressure and competition level in education stem from the competitive pressure in the terminal labor market. Therefore, those so-called “human-centered education experts" who blindly call for adopting relaxed Western education methods are either foolishly unaware of the real world or intentionally pretending to be ignorant to deceive people for money.
Delving deeper, we can discuss the differences in intensity and quality between Western elite education and public education, and how the West relies on many artificially created monopolies to enjoy premium labor costs (e.g., patent and copyright systems). This topic is complicated and troublesome to discuss in detail. However, broadly speaking, the nearly 50-year catch-up by East Asian countries has inevitably led to a situation where the workforce in catching-up countries faces far greater intensity and pressure than those in so-called “advanced Western countries" who enjoy more monopolistic benefits. Thus, for a considerable time, we will see East Asian workers experiencing longer work hours and more pressure, yet seemingly having lower “nominal marginal productivity" compared to Western workers, which is a paradox that actual participants in the production line cannot discern.
Therefore, until per capita income levels out, the average work intensity/pressure in catching-up economies, along with the learning intensity/pressure passed down to all age groups, will remain relatively high. This level will be inversely proportional to the aforementioned difference in actual per capita income.
Hence, we see that Japan, which became wealthy earlier among the catching-up countries, is relatively early in adopting a laid-back attitude and experiencing phenomena such as the hikikomori (social withdrawal) culture in society.

(translated by ChatGPT)

分類
經濟分析

亨利福特T型車

1913年發明汽車流水線生產的Ford T型車初始上市售價850美元,遠比同時期其他品牌汽車2000~4000美元價格區間便宜非常多,因此市場競爭力特別強大,很快從富裕階層向中產階層拓展客源,而更廣大的市場反哺規模經濟下的流水線生產,使得生產成本進一步降低,到了1927年T型車售價不斷下壓至290美元。

靠著成本優勢獲得強大市場競爭力,在福特汽車上是載入史冊的近現代工業傳奇。

但到了現今中國新能源汽車上,同樣的成本優勢成為兩棲動物口中「滯銷品」、「賣越多越失敗」啦~

Adam Smith經典「國富論」為經濟學開山之作,書中清楚解釋市場廣度決定專業分工的程度 (“The division of labor is limited by the extent of the market”)。同時,專業分工的程度決定生產成本優勢。更重要的是,專業分工下的成本優勢又會進一步拓展市場廣度(”the division of labor gives rise to market institutions and expands the extent of the market. “)。

中國擁有世界數一數二,同文同種高度統一法規的巨大市場,必然可以容納小市場難以生存的專業分工型態,並以此取得巨大成本優勢拓展國際市場。

上述根本就是Adam Smith這位經濟學祖師爺早已闡述清楚的經濟現象:適用於20世紀初的福特汽車,當然也適用於21世紀初的中國新能源車。

偏偏總有些兩棲動物連這最基本的經濟學感受都不具備。到了他們口中,具備價格競爭力反倒是要亡國滅種囉。

分類
經濟分析

Henry Ford’s Model T Car

In 1913, the Ford Model T, which introduced assembly line production, had an initial market price of $850. This was significantly cheaper than other brands of cars at the time, which ranged between $2,000 and $4,000, thus offering a strong competitive edge in the market. It quickly expanded its customer base from the affluent to the middle class. The broader market, in turn, fueled the economies of scale in assembly line production, further reducing production costs. By 1927, the price of the Model T had been driven down to $290.

Leveraging cost advantages for competitive strength in the market, Ford’s approach became a modern industrial legend recorded in history. However, in today’s Chinese new energy vehicle sector, the same cost advantage is paradoxically seen by some as indicative of “unsold goods" and “the more you sell, the more you fail."

Adam Smith’s seminal work, “The Wealth of Nations," lays the foundation for economics, clearly explaining that the scope of the market determines the extent of the division of labor (“The division of labor is limited by the extent of the market"). In turn, the degree of specialization determines cost advantages. More importantly, the cost advantages under specialized division further expand the market scope (“the division of labor gives rise to market institutions and expands the extent of the market").

China, with one of the world’s largest markets characterized by a unified language, race, and highly unified regulations, can naturally accommodate specialized divisions of labor that small markets cannot sustain, thereby gaining significant cost advantages to expand into the international market.

The aforementioned is fundamentally the economic phenomenon clearly explained by Adam Smith, the father of economics: applicable to Ford cars in the early 20th century and equally applicable to Chinese new energy vehicles in the early 21st century.

Yet, there are always some who lack even this basic economic sense. In their view, having competitive pricing is somehow equated with national doom.