這也表示，Fed聲稱通貨膨脹只是暫時且不嚴重的論點，很可能是基於刻意被低估的統計方法。另一個值得一提的，是Fed自疫情封城後每個月都買入$400億美元房貸為基礎的金融證券（mortgage-backed securities），但我們也都清楚2008年美國金融危機的一大肇因就是美國聯邦政府轄下兩個專門替房貸信用擔保的房利美、房地美機構（Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac），其相當於政府干預市場的行為扭曲並蒙蔽了市場對真實風險的判斷。
我們可以從Biden總統的發言看到他對基礎經濟學概念的嚴重無知與缺乏：“Capitalism without competition isn’t capitalism. It’s exploitation,” … “Without healthy competition, big players can change and charge whatever they want, and treat you however they want. And for too many Americans that means accepting a bad deal for things that you can’t go without.”
我們看到前任Fed主席，現任美國財政部部長Janet L. Yellen也於7月中旬接受紐約時報採訪時鬆口承認Trump時代對中國的關稅障礙結果是在傷害美國消費者。（"Tariffs are taxes on consumers. In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, …"）
這樣的錯誤，美國政府百年來犯了無數次。例如我們曾談過Milton Friedman 與George Stigler 兩位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主共同撰寫的知名論文「Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem」以1906年甫大地震後225,000人無家可歸的舊金山市為研究對象，發現當時無力管制的市政府放任市場自由定價，結果是多數人很快找到新家，即便是十分貧窮者，也有與之對應的廉價房屋提供（1906 advertisement “Six-room house and bath, with 2 additional rooms in basement having fire-places, nicely furnished; fine piano; … $45."）
英國經濟學家，前英格蘭銀行與英國貨幣政策顧問Charles Goodhart警告：「中國帶給全世界的經濟紅利若因其人口結構老化而逐漸消失，則世界必將面對通貨膨脹衝擊。」（"…as aging populations in China and other nations spend more of their savings, average interest rates will rise higher than governments have bargained for…China’s greatest contribution to global growth is now past. This great demographic reversal will lead to a return of inflation.”）
上個世代扮演此角色的是日本，因此我們也看到日本與中國分別是目前美國國債最大持有國。（Foreign governments owned US$7.053 trillion of US debt in November, including China’s US$1.063 trillion, and Japan’s US$1.260 trillion, US Treasury data showed. ）
new March quarter records for both revenue and earnings, besting our year ago revenue performance by 54%.
iPhone, which grew 66% year- over-year driven by the strong popularity of the iPhone 12 family.
iPad grow very strong double digits to its highest March quarter revenue in nearly a decade.
In fact, the last three quarters for Mac have been its three best quarters ever
Wearables, Home and Accessories, which grew by 25% year-over-year.
Services. We achieved growth of 27% year-over-year and set new records for services in each of our geographic segments.
Over the next five years, we will invest $430 billion, creating 20,000 jobs in the process.
Our revenue reached a March quarter record of $89.6 billion, an increase of over $31 billion or 54% from a year ago.
Products revenue was a March quarter record of $72.7 billion, up 62% over a year ago.
Our services set an all-time record of $16.9 billion, growing 27% over a year ago. ( App Store, cloud services, music, video, advertising and payment services. Our new service offerings, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News Fitness+)
Company gross margin was 42.5%, up 270 basis points from last quarter driven by cost savings, a strong mix and favorable foreign exchange. Products gross margin was 36.1%, growing 100 basis points sequentially also thanks to cost savings and FX, partially offset by seasonal loss of leverage. Services gross margin was 70.1%, up 170 basis points sequentially and mainly due to a different mix. Net income of $23.6 billion, diluted earnings per share of $1.40 and operating cash flow of $24 billion were all March quarter records by a wide margin.
During the March quarter, we added more than 40 million paid subs sequentially, and we have now reached more than 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform. This is up $145 million from just a year ago and twice the number of paid subscriptions we are only 2.5 years ago.
Apple Watch continues to extend its reach, with nearly 75% of the customers purchasing Apple Watch during the quarter being new to the product.
Mac. We set an all-time revenue record of $9.1 billion, up 70% over last year, and grew very strongly in each geographic segment with all-time revenue records in Europe and rest of Asia Pacific and March quarter records in the Americas, Greater China and Japan. This amazing performance was driven by the very enthusiastic customer response to our new Macs powered by the M1 chip.
iPad performance was also outstanding with revenue of $7.8 billion up 79%.
And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones
We ended the quarter with over $204 billion in cash plus marketable securities. We issued $14 billion of new term debt and retired $3.5 billion of term debt leaving us with total debt of almost $122 billion. As a result, net cash was $83 billion at the end of the quarter.
we were also able to return nearly $23 billion to shareholders during the March quarter. This included $3.4 billion in dividends and equivalents and $19 billion through open market repurchases of 147 million Apple shares.
This will cause a steeper sequential decline than usual. Second, we believe supply constraints will have a revenue impact of $3 billion to $4 billion in the June quarter.
「Personal savings soared as high as 33.7% in April following the Cares Act and were still a healthy 13.7% in December before Congress passed another $900 billion in Covid aid. This means that, unlike during the 2009 recession, households aren’t weighed down by debt.
Personal bankruptcies, home foreclosures and loan delinquencies last fall were the lowest since at least 2003. The mortgage delinquency rate was 0.7% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to 7% in the first quarter of 2009. …」
高資產或高負債的公司在嚴重通膨時期的股價表現優於高現金部位的公司。在經濟學大師Armen A. Alchian 1965年的論文 “Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices “中，特別指出傳統經濟學如凱因斯、費雪等著名學者之見認為銀行身為典型債務人，在通貨膨脹環境下應該有較好的股價表現。而Alchian則點出這些學者大老忽略銀行雖然集債務於一身（大眾存款之於銀行就是債務），然而銀行受限於法規與現實，其資產多是「現金資產（money-type assets）」，故在嚴重通貨膨脹影響下，銀行實際經濟損失大過通膨泡沫所得，股價表現當然好不到哪去。
「…JPMorgan, said the size of the bitcoin market had grown to equal about a fifth of gold held for investment and trading purposes, with a market capitalisation for the cryptocurrency of $750bn at its peak earlier this year, meaning it “is far from a niche asset class”. 」
「…Analysts at Canadian insurance company Manulife said in late January that the expansion in central banks’ balance sheets and rising public debt would push investors further into alternative asset classes …」
「…Xangle showing that investors have lost more than $16bn to fraud since 2012 …」
b. 近日美國美國前25大銀行對私人之貸款佔總資產比例從去年54.1%下降之45.7%，且放在Fed reserve account總金額達$3.15兆美元。
（The 25 largest U.S. banks currently hold 45.7% of their assets in loans and leases, according to Fed data released Friday, down from 54.1% this time last year. .. reserve balances in their Federal Reserve depository accounts at sky-high levels, $3.15 trillion at present
通膨現象將會更嚴重，因為「…According to a recent House Budget Committee estimate, $1 trillion from last year’s bills hasn’t been spent—including $59 billion for schools, $239 billion for health care and $452 billion in small business loans. State and local governments added 67,000 jobs in January. They don’t need more federal cash. …」
Electric vehicle battery packs and motors currently cost about $4,000 more to manufacture than a comparable fossil fuel-burning midsize sedan engine. By 2022, the difference will be $1,900—and will disappear by mid-decade, according to investment bank UBS Group AG .
2010年1月時鋰離子成本約 $1,000 and $1,200 per kilowatt-hour. ，十年後為 $125 per kilowatt-hour