The Chinese workers in the Province of Anhui are diligently working on Trump’s next campaign flags by the due date, and Mr. Trump himself has kept declaring to urge and require the American firms to move their manufacturing lines back to the US.
Action speaks louder than words, you bet.
難怪先前的加徵關稅忽然喊卡，原來是自己的貨還沒到呢！
No wonder priorly Mr. Trump suspended the possible raise of the tariffs. He is still waiting for the delivery. LOL
此例重點不僅僅是點出美國怎樣雙重標準，更是要說明「人權」的概念本質其實是一整組錯綜複雜的權利義務內涵，更準確的說是一種「express and implied contractual arrangements」。而權利範圍的釐定與真實可執行背後都要付出「成本」！也就是我一貫主張的：當整體社會財富不夠，人權喊得再高大上實質上根本做不到也就沒有任何意義；當整體社會財富夠支撐某種程度的契約組合時，人權自然會逐漸獲得改善。
（當然更困難的還有許多基本權利並未明文在憲法之中，而是寄生在他種基本權利之內，因此其權利範疇的劃定又受到他種權利的影響，這一塊我不打算深談，我簡單舉一例：可能多數人並不知道，「墮胎權（abortion）」在美國憲法結構中並非明文的基本權利，最早是從「隱私權（right of privacy）」下派生出來。 「閱讀色情物品（freedom to read obscene materials）」也是從隱私權為權利基礎衍生，這使得此權利早期被認為不包含散佈、販賣或購買的自由。這是說：若此權利一開始被認為是言論自由的一部分，則權利範圍劃定將大為不同）
a. 「財富累積改善人權」是指整體改善，我很厭倦老是有人拿單一個案強調是反證，而其恰恰是邏輯不清的蠢證。這猶如當我說明私有產權制度搭配自由貿易，整體社會財富會增長，而你硬扯「但是這個社會還是有人餓死」一樣可笑荒謬。 是的，當美國已經富裕到每年幾十萬人死於肥胖時，你還是可以硬扯有人依然死於飢餓，從而推導出「所以美國跟當年殖民地初期一樣，依然是不毛之地」的蠢論。
b. 人權改善是變動且緩慢進步的過程。這在哪一國都一樣。與此同時，「權利組合不存在最好」，這是說，不考慮真實侷限條件，光只會聲稱「某國更有人權」是一種愚蠢的論點。 任何權利組合在不同侷限條件下造成的整體社會租值/效率都會不同，而在低交易費用下，人權的權利範圍應該會往最高租值/效率的方向演化，但此演化不見得人人都能接受，特別是那些象牙塔裡的學者或是其實並無思辨能力的法匠。
I was planning to write an article to explain why the HK protestors have a very long shot to “move" the HK dollars and the Linked Exchange Rate System by their teeny tiny deposits. But I found that Professor Lui has explained this issue very well.
Note! The HK Linked Exchange Rate System is a de facto monetary system but not a simple exchange-rater-fixing control. The M0 supply of HK dollars is fully promised by the total amount the US dollar reserves at the ratio of 1:7.8. The fluctuation of the market exchange rate will directly change the quantity of the M0, which means the HK money issuing banks have incentives to buy or sell the currencies and maintain the rate fluctuate in a very narrow range.
The demands for more US dollar will directly shrink the quantity of the HK dollar, and the rising short-term interest rate will accelerate the process. Both will raise the exchange rate of the HK dollar. If every US dollar is taken away, there will be no HK dollars in the market at all. Here comes the problem: what currency a citizen must use to pay her tickets, punishments, taxes, and rents? There are always demands for HK dollars and people who have all US dollars in hands will have to bear the risk of loss. People will be forced to crazily trace the small quantity of the HK dollars.
(Based on the M0 supply records, we can tell that the foreseeability of the supply of Renminbi (RMB) is higher than of the US dollar. The coinage of the US government was naughtier and more irresponsible, especially in 2008 and 2013. )
二、 2005年7月21日起，人民幣從只鉤美元轉為一籃子貨幣，而其中組成成分並未公開。
(Since July 21, 2005, the central bank of China has switched RMB from hooking solely onto the US dollar to a bucket of foreign currencies. The components have been confidential.)
(Nonetheless, we could guess that the weight of the US dollar of the bucket could be more than 90% in the beginning. With the decreasing of the US dollar weight of the bucket, the exchange of the RMB to the USD started to rise.)
這裡有幾個點大家要注意：
Note:
a. 人民幣轉強其實是2002年左右就可從外匯存底成長性提昇這點看出端倪，因為當時緊鉤美元匯率，所以在匯率價格不變之下，因世界對中國產品與服務的需求提昇，外匯存底開始大幅成長。
(a. We can figure out that the strength of the RMB had been enhanced from the more and more noticeable growth of the foreign exchange reserves from 2002. Since the RMB has hooked onto the US dollar, as long as the exchange rate being unchanged, the growth of the foreign exchange reserves would massively climb due to the greater international aggregated demands for the Chinese products and services.)
b. 當人民幣2005年中轉鉤一籃子貨幣後，我們可以看到人民幣對美元升值，但外匯存底到2014年左右卻仍以驚人漲幅繼續成長，這代表人民幣是當時不但是世界最強貨幣，而且我們可以假設：如果人民幣對美元不升值，則外匯存底成長將更為驚人。
(b. The exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar started to climb after the hook being switched to a bucket of currencies. However, the growth of the foreign exchange reserves had astonishingly progressed, which showed that the RMB was the strongest currency against others during this period of time. We may assume that if the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar had had not raised, the growth of the reserves would have been reaching surprisingly higher.)
c. 中國外匯存底的高度成長也部分解釋了為何2008年之後美元大幅發行卻未在美國境內引發高度通貨膨脹 — 因為人民幣鉤著美元本身，保證了美元的強勢。此論點大大傷害假台獨覺青的玻璃心，但事實上恰恰是中國的經濟實力保障了美元的購買力。
(c. The remarkable growth of the foreign exchange reserves of China partly explains the reason why there has been no noticeable inflation occurred domestically in the US after its massively printing money since 2008. Because the RMB had been hooking onto the US dollar, which promised the buying power of the US dollar. This argument would hurt the fragile hearts of the so-called youths of awareness.)
d. 但很明顯我們看到中國錯誤的經濟政策（如2008年相繼推出的騰籠換鳥策略、新勞動合同法）造成的傷害逐漸浮現，一堆邊際企業工廠倒閉出走，但希冀的高租值產業在哪仍朦朧不明。很清楚2015年後人民幣回貶，但外匯存底卻開始下降。這也是說，2015年後整體中國經濟實力不增反減的可能性是存在的。
(d. The damages caused by wrong economic policies, like the “changing-the-bird-in-the-cage” policy or the “new Labor Contract Law,” was getting more apparent. A lot of marginal firms were forced to close or being out of China, but we have seen not enough highly-profited companies to fulfill the absence. The decrease of the exchange rate of the RMB companying with the reduction of the foreign exchange reserves clearly reflects the possibility of the decline of the Chinese economy after 2015.)
e. 2016年後人民幣轉弱這點，我認為也可能部分因為人民幣鉤美元的比例重新回升（甚至重新以近乎100%比例鉤著）。
(e. The weak RMB could also be partly due to the ratio of the US dollar in the bucket raising back to as high as nearly 100% again.)
上述幾點綜合來看，我的淺見如下：
(Here are my humble opinions:)
A. 2001～2019年中國的M0貨幣發行量年複合增長率約8%；同時期外匯存底成長率約17%。如果假設人民幣的發行是以外匯存底為儲備的話，那我們並看不出來中國政府有長時期超發人民幣的現象。這點打臉了一堆目前網路上常見的「中國崩潰論」聲稱「人民幣購買力已經一毛不值」的錯誤假設。
(A. From 2001 to 2019, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Chinese M0 supply is around eight percent, and the CAGR of the foreign exchange reserves is about 17% of the same period. Say the reserves are also the currency issuance reserves of the Renminbi, there is no sign of oversupplying. This refutes what the common arguers, who believe “the coming collapse of China,” have claimed, “the RMB is worthless.”)
B. 川普與美國政府聲稱中國操弄人民幣使之故意被低估這點很明顯根本是胡扯，因為我們清楚看到人民幣2015年後轉弱勢是因為中國經濟實力轉弱與可能的籃子組成調整。IMF也發表聲明不認同「中國操弄人民幣」這謬論。
(B. President Trump and his administrations have claimed that the currency exchange manipulation by the Chinese government is obviously nonsense because the weakness after 2015 was mainly caused by the declined progress of the Chinese economy and possible adjustments of the components of the currency bucket. The IMF officially disagrees with the “China-manipulating-exchange-rate” argument, either.
C. 一堆大媽級財經專家以為人民幣貶值主因是中美貿易戰，在我看來是見樹不見林的經濟低手。一國貨幣的匯率長期趨勢始終反應的是該國的經濟實力，也就是世界他國對該國商品服務的總需求。
(C. A lot of conventional financial or economic experts who think the main reason for the declined exchange rate of the RMB is because of the trade wars between the US and China. They just cannot see the wood for the trees. The long term trend of the exchange rate of one nation’s currency always reflects the strength of the nation’s economy, which is de facto foreign aggregated demands for the very nation’s goods and services. )
D. 人民幣應該在2008～2012年最強勢之時放棄一籃子貨幣，轉鉤其他標的。現在時機並不如當年，但也非不可。我推測中國或許有此打算：近日國務院的簡政放權改革與負面清單項目減少，以及2014年開始研發的中國國家數位貨幣近日消息頻頻，均可能暗示著人民幣國際化即將啟程，人民幣轉鉤之日即將到來。而一旦人民幣成功轉鉤到較佳標的，則強勢美元將不再，人民幣國際化也會正式踏上旅程。因此川普事事怪罪中國這點雖然錯，但他希冀的「弱勢美元」，解鈴人的確是中國。
(D. I think the RMB should have had changed its hook from on a bucket of currencies to other targets while the RMB was vigorous during 2008~2012. Today’s timing is not as good as before. However, it is still worth a shot. According to the policy of “streamlining government functions and administration and delegating powers while improving regulation” pursued by the General Office of the State Council and more disclosed informations of the national digital currency developed by the People’s Bank of China, I guess the Chinese government may have plans to change the hook of the RMB and to internationalize its currency. Once the Chinese government successfully get this job done, the strong US dollar will be no longer exist. The RMB will have its first step on the journey of internationalization. Although Mr. Trump was wrong on blaming China for everything, however, the Chinese government is true the key to the weak-dollar policy, which has been pursued by Mr. Trump.)
( How and in what degree the Chinese government would lift its foreign exchange controls shall be under observation. It is unavoidable to hook a good target for keeping the value of the RMB steady while the foreigners can freely purchase and sell the RMB. Furthermore, if the Chinese government can victoriously complete this mission, other developing countries and European countries will partly change the hooks of their currencies onto the RMB. There will be a trend.)
(Otherwise, if the Chinese government keeps its hook of the RMB unchanged, then the strong US dollar will continue but the internationalization of the RMB will be doomed.)
另外太古集團還經營美國大型冷凍冷藏服務公司 — United States Cold Storage （設立於1899年），你吃的美國牛肉、美國蔬果，很可能都使用了太古集團的USCS冷凍冷藏服務。 擁有逾一百五十艘船隻的太古輪船公司，遍及澳洲、新西蘭、中國內地、巴布亞新畿內亞、新加坡、台灣、斐濟、薩摩亞及新喀里多尼亞營運。很可能你家裡一堆用品的全部或部分都使用了該公司的船運服務。
二、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Milton Friedman曾於「Power of the Market」影片中以一支鉛筆為例，這支鉛筆很可能集結成千上萬的人力分工合作才能製作出來 — 筆身的木頭是從森林砍伐運出來，砍樹需要的斧頭或鏈鋸機械需要用鋼製作，鋼才由鐵礦採出，由大煉鋼高爐提煉，使用的煤礦與各種化學添加劑又分別從不同礦源、不同設備採出提煉。鉛筆的石墨筆心、橡皮擦、包覆橡皮擦的鋁片、膠水…等等，每一個環節均是大量彼此完全不認識的人力，透過市場交易達成分工合作。
元毓說 