月份: 十一月 2020

It’s worth of reading.

Some points illustrated as following:

Intel still makes 80% of CPUs for personal computers and 94% of them for servers. Its estimated revenue of 2020 maybe about $75 billion USD, and its net income $20.7B.

Its major rivalry, AMD, has the estimated revenue of $9.47B, up from $6.73B a year earlier(40.7% growth, YoY) and estimated net income of $1.5B, up from $756M (98% growth,YoY).

It means that every dollar growth in revenue can bring 2.4 dollars growth in net income, which reflects the feature of high-rent-value business. The economic scale decides the gross profit margin.

And this is the reason why Intel enjoys higher marginal rent value than AMD.

Besides Intel’s dominant area, it had failed in RF and mobile device industry such as its doomed WiMax chipsets and mobile phone SoCs. Now it is facing two major problems: 1) its manufacturing skill has been left behind of TSMC for one or two generations; and 2) its lack of machine-learning products.

In the history, Intel had lost its competition against then Japanese companies in the RAM industry. Intel waived its white flag and turned into the CPU industry in 1980s. However, such successful turning point has never shown again since the launch of its wifi chipset. I do not have enough confidence in its new M&A strategy in the AI field.

On the other hand, the TSMC’s 2 nm manufacturing advance is not unreachable for Intel. I think the nature physical barriers, like the quantum tunnelling effect, will delay the progress of IC manufacturing after 2nm. Although I’ve heard and read many issues in its manufacturing team. I still believe Intel’s outstanding engineers can get things done after all. It only takes time and money. Nonetheless, this is another big problem. After TSMC having enjoyed monopoly profits for quite a long time, even Intel could catch up with TSMC after spending about couple years and billions dollars, the remaining rent value will be limited for Intel. I am not sure whether the necessary costs of competition would be covered or not, especially considering that Intel has lost its big client, Apple. Of course, the intense competition would erode TSMC’s rent value, too. It’s not a good news for TSMC’s investors who recently got on the board at such high stock prices.

全球Covid-19疫情，多數國家經濟商業狀況不佳下，中國是少數快速控制疫情並是唯一經濟維持正成長的大型經濟體。

即便美中關係在Trump政府有意操弄下落至近年來最差，但美國企業卻大大受惠於中國市場的反彈。

根據WSJ這篇報導「U.S. Firms Get Another Boost From China」 指出幾個數字：

1. 雅詩蘭黛（Estee Lauder）全球第三季相較去年同期營收衰退9%，但中國市場同期營收成長28%~30%。
2. 可口可樂公布第三季全球營收$86.5億美元，相較去年同期全球衰退9%、美國市場衰退6%，然而中國市場仍為正成長。
3. L’Oreal公布第三季營收相較去年同期全球衰退2%，但中國市場同期增長28%。
4. Cummmins Inc是一家專門製造卡車引擎的公司，表示該公司第三季全球市場衰退達11%，但獨獨中國市場同期成長46%。
5. 德國Daimler AG（賓士）集團表示該公司第三季全球衰退8%，但中國市場成長24%。
6. 美國GM（通用汽車）表示同季度美國市場衰退10%，中國市場成長12%。
7. Ford（福特汽車）表示同季度全球市場衰退5%，中國市場成長22%。
8. 日本豐田與本田汽車分別加倍會計年度第四季（結束於2021年3月）的獲利預估，表明中國市場銷售狀況十分樂觀，支持他們提高獲利預估。
9. 美國知名藥妝店Walgreen在2018年併購中國藥妝連鎖店國藥集團40%股份，該集團於併購時僅有3600家店，至近日無視今年疫情，增加至7500家。
10. 中國買入美國農產品的力道也恢復到疫情爆發前的水平。