Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas 與 Hélène Rey,二位經濟學家在2005年的論文"From World Banker To World Venture Capitalist: Us External Adjustment And The Exorbitant Privilege"研究發現，從1952～2004年美國持有外國資產的平均收益率是5.72%，外國持有美國資產的平均收益率則僅3.61%，相差2.11%。
這表示同樣$100投入，52年的時間後的差異是$1803.7 vs $632.25，二者是2.85倍。
「… 今年7月初美國總統Biden簽署了一系列行政命令，新增了橫跨農業、健康產業、物流、交通、科技產業、勞工…等各種管制，聲稱可以透過政府干預帶來產業競爭狀態的改善與消費者/勞工權益。 我們可以從Biden總統的發言看到他對基礎經濟學概念的嚴重無知與缺乏：“Capitalism without competition isn’t capitalism. It’s exploitation,” … “Without healthy competition, big players can change and charge whatever they want, and treat you however they want. And for too many Americans that means accepting a bad deal for things that you can’t go without.” 經濟學認為競爭無處不在，而不同的侷限條件會導致競爭的態樣改變。某些侷限條件下的競爭會有較高的租值消散，某些則較少。純粹市價競爭的自由市場是理論上完全無租值消散的一種競爭態樣。 因此，政府管制往往帶來的只是更多租值消散與尋租空間。誠如雷根總統說過：「政府本身就是問題，而不是解答。」 所以我們不難發現試圖以更多管制措施、更多政府干預來「使市場健康競爭」的Biden政府，必然是一場徒勞無功且弊病叢生的白工。只是所增加的交易費用，依然是由美國人民來承擔，這對通貨膨脹烏雲蓋頂的底層百姓而言，恐怕雪上加霜。…」
2021年3月我在「近日股市資金行情之我見」（https://bit.ly/3qULiOG）文中即引用了經濟學大師Armen A. Alchian 1965年的論文 「Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices 」談通貨膨脹下股票標的如何選擇。
今天我再引用A. A. Alchian 和 R. A. Kessel合著的另一篇未曾發表的論文「More Evidence on Inflation-caused Wealth Redistribution」。
本文中兩位作者用20世紀上半葉美國股市的數據指出科學實證上的確存在一種利用通貨膨脹或緊縮來更快累積自身財富的方法，只要「資產配置者能：a. 正確預判通貨膨脹或緊縮，與b. 正確判斷投資標的公司的現金水位（To capture the wealth transfers, one would have to predict inflation or deflation, and he would also have to predict the net monetary status of any firm whose common stock he might hold in his portfolio. ）」
我們從作者繪製的圖表可以看出，採取作者在"Effects"一文開發出之方法，36年的長期投資績效相差一倍有餘，換算年複合報酬率是18.59% vs. 16.24%。（見圖）
new March quarter records for both revenue and earnings, besting our year ago revenue performance by 54%.
iPhone, which grew 66% year- over-year driven by the strong popularity of the iPhone 12 family.
iPad grow very strong double digits to its highest March quarter revenue in nearly a decade.
In fact, the last three quarters for Mac have been its three best quarters ever
Wearables, Home and Accessories, which grew by 25% year-over-year.
Services. We achieved growth of 27% year-over-year and set new records for services in each of our geographic segments.
Over the next five years, we will invest $430 billion, creating 20,000 jobs in the process.
Our revenue reached a March quarter record of $89.6 billion, an increase of over $31 billion or 54% from a year ago.
Products revenue was a March quarter record of $72.7 billion, up 62% over a year ago.
Our services set an all-time record of $16.9 billion, growing 27% over a year ago. ( App Store, cloud services, music, video, advertising and payment services. Our new service offerings, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News Fitness+)
Company gross margin was 42.5%, up 270 basis points from last quarter driven by cost savings, a strong mix and favorable foreign exchange. Products gross margin was 36.1%, growing 100 basis points sequentially also thanks to cost savings and FX, partially offset by seasonal loss of leverage. Services gross margin was 70.1%, up 170 basis points sequentially and mainly due to a different mix. Net income of $23.6 billion, diluted earnings per share of $1.40 and operating cash flow of $24 billion were all March quarter records by a wide margin.
During the March quarter, we added more than 40 million paid subs sequentially, and we have now reached more than 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform. This is up $145 million from just a year ago and twice the number of paid subscriptions we are only 2.5 years ago.
Apple Watch continues to extend its reach, with nearly 75% of the customers purchasing Apple Watch during the quarter being new to the product.
Mac. We set an all-time revenue record of $9.1 billion, up 70% over last year, and grew very strongly in each geographic segment with all-time revenue records in Europe and rest of Asia Pacific and March quarter records in the Americas, Greater China and Japan. This amazing performance was driven by the very enthusiastic customer response to our new Macs powered by the M1 chip.
iPad performance was also outstanding with revenue of $7.8 billion up 79%.
And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones
We ended the quarter with over $204 billion in cash plus marketable securities. We issued $14 billion of new term debt and retired $3.5 billion of term debt leaving us with total debt of almost $122 billion. As a result, net cash was $83 billion at the end of the quarter.
we were also able to return nearly $23 billion to shareholders during the March quarter. This included $3.4 billion in dividends and equivalents and $19 billion through open market repurchases of 147 million Apple shares.
This will cause a steeper sequential decline than usual. Second, we believe supply constraints will have a revenue impact of $3 billion to $4 billion in the June quarter.
「Personal savings soared as high as 33.7% in April following the Cares Act and were still a healthy 13.7% in December before Congress passed another $900 billion in Covid aid. This means that, unlike during the 2009 recession, households aren’t weighed down by debt.
Personal bankruptcies, home foreclosures and loan delinquencies last fall were the lowest since at least 2003. The mortgage delinquency rate was 0.7% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to 7% in the first quarter of 2009. …」
高資產或高負債的公司在嚴重通膨時期的股價表現優於高現金部位的公司。在經濟學大師Armen A. Alchian 1965年的論文 “Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices “中，特別指出傳統經濟學如凱因斯、費雪等著名學者之見認為銀行身為典型債務人，在通貨膨脹環境下應該有較好的股價表現。而Alchian則點出這些學者大老忽略銀行雖然集債務於一身（大眾存款之於銀行就是債務），然而銀行受限於法規與現實，其資產多是「現金資產（money-type assets）」，故在嚴重通貨膨脹影響下，銀行實際經濟損失大過通膨泡沫所得，股價表現當然好不到哪去。
「…JPMorgan, said the size of the bitcoin market had grown to equal about a fifth of gold held for investment and trading purposes, with a market capitalisation for the cryptocurrency of $750bn at its peak earlier this year, meaning it “is far from a niche asset class”. 」
「…Analysts at Canadian insurance company Manulife said in late January that the expansion in central banks’ balance sheets and rising public debt would push investors further into alternative asset classes …」
「…Xangle showing that investors have lost more than $16bn to fraud since 2012 …」
b. 近日美國美國前25大銀行對私人之貸款佔總資產比例從去年54.1%下降之45.7%，且放在Fed reserve account總金額達$3.15兆美元。
（The 25 largest U.S. banks currently hold 45.7% of their assets in loans and leases, according to Fed data released Friday, down from 54.1% this time last year. .. reserve balances in their Federal Reserve depository accounts at sky-high levels, $3.15 trillion at present
通膨現象將會更嚴重，因為「…According to a recent House Budget Committee estimate, $1 trillion from last year’s bills hasn’t been spent—including $59 billion for schools, $239 billion for health care and $452 billion in small business loans. State and local governments added 67,000 jobs in January. They don’t need more federal cash. …」