真實世界法規往往限制不只一種權能,存在各種組合。更嚴重如反托拉斯法,對企業的產權內容影響根本模糊不清 — 任何人只要壟斷、試圖壟斷或與他人合謀壟斷都是犯罪。(Sherman Act Section 2: “Every person who shall monopolize, or attempt to monopolize, or combine or conspire with any other person or persons, to monopolize any part of the trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, shall be deemed guilty of a felony…”)。
根據WHO統計,2016年全球死於呼吸道感染(今年流行的Covid-19就會被歸類為此分類)就有295萬人(見表),每十萬人死亡數是39.63人(CDR, Crude Death Rate)。目前美國可算是世界疫情最嚴重的地區之一,然而相較於2016年來看,目前美國Covid-19的CDR數值是每十萬人死亡26.2人。事實上並非特別嚴重的傳染病,但卻造成遠比過去更嚴重疫情下還大的經濟損失?
與此同時我們也看到,美國為了保障中小企業繼續聘僱員工的「Paycheck Protect Program (PPP)」條件是該企業領取貸款後必須「繼續聘僱員工」方能獲得債務豁免。然而許多企業卻因lockdown無法營業,繼續聘僱不能來上班的勞工對企業毫無誘因,使得企業乾脆選擇結束營業而非申請補助。這一塊又加重失業人數之增加。這也造成美國國會雖然在4/27緊急增加$3700億美元補助金,但迄今卻出現40%閒置無人申請的矛盾現象。再一次證明「政府本身就是問題,政府無法解決問題」。
這是說,看似嚇破膽的歷史紀錄2千多萬人首次申請失業補助的背後,並非病毒導致而是美國政府干預創造出來的怪獸。因此不管Covid-19引起的疫情是否取得「曲線平緩(flatten the curve)」,只要干預拿掉,經濟都會逐步恢復原狀。
「Delivery Procedure: Delivery shall be made free-on-board (“F.O.B.") at any pipeline or storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma with pipeline access to Enterprise, Cushing storage or Enbridge, Cushing storage. Delivery shall be made in accordance with all applicable Federal executive orders and all applicable Federal, State and local laws and regulations. At buyer’s option, delivery shall be made by any of the following methods: (1) by interfacility transfer (“pumpover") into a designated pipeline or storage facility with access to seller’s incoming pipeline or storage facility; (2) by in-line (or in-system) transfer, or book-out of title to the buyer; or (3) if the seller agrees to such transfer and if the facility used by the seller allows for such transfer, without physical movement of product, by in-tank transfer of title to the buyer.」
WSJ: “The Federal Reserve Is Changing What It Means to Be a Central Bank" (2020-04-27)
Milton Friedman, “A Natural Experiment in Money Policy Covering Three Episodes of Growth and Decline in the Economy and the Stock Market" Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol. 19, (Fall 2005)
Allan H. Meltzer, “Current Lessons From The Past: How The Fed Repeats Its History." Cato Journal, Vol 34, No. 3 (Fall 2014)
Financial Times: “Coronavirus crisis: does value investing still make sense?"(2020-05-11)
WSJ: “New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought" (2020-04-17)
WSJ: “Why Doesn’t Flu Tank Economy Like Covid-19?"(2020-04-10)
WSJ: “Demand for Small-Business Loans Cools" (2020-05-08)
WSJ: “How Germany Kept Its Factories Open During the Pandemic" (2020-05-06)
WSJ: “Paying Americans Not to Work" (2020-04-22)
WSJ: “Businesses Struggle to Lure Workers Away From Unemployment" (2020-05-08)
WSJ: “Demand for Small-Business Loans Cools"(2020-05-08)
A. A. Alchian,"Information Costs, Pricing, and Resource Unemployment" (1969)
WSJ: “Millions of Credit-Card Customers Can’t Pay Their Bills. Lenders Are Bracing for Impact." (2020-04-25)
Financial Times: “CLOs: ground zero for the next stage of financial crisis?" (2020-05-13)
重點: Mr. Trump’s timing is right because the American public is beginning to see that the economic harm from lockdowns is also a disaster. Twenty million jobless in four weeks and food lines are a human tragedy. The longer the lockdowns the more long-term damage there will be in lost human and physical capital—and the weaker the recovery. Americans want to defeat Covid-19, and they have shown they will sacrifice to do it, but they don’t want poverty to be the price they have to pay for victory. (4週內2000萬人失業是人類悲劇。封鎖時間越長則對人力資源與資本的長期傷害就越嚴重,且復原也越無力。美國當然願意為戰勝COVID-19犧牲,但絕不是以「落入貧窮」為代價)
重點: 1. 以近日史丹福大學在Santa Clara郡(恰好我也在此居住過兩年)研究發現實際受感染者的數量遠大於已知,可能佔該區總人口2.5%~4.5%之間,換算推估的受感染者應是目前確診數量的50~85倍。 然而,從好的一面看,不但感染數可能更接近流行性感冒,以這個角度看COVID-19的病死率可能也遠比目前推估的來得更低且更接近流感。 2. 作者問:「Yet if policy makers were aware from the outset that the Covid-19 death toll would be closer to that of seasonal flu than the millions of American deaths predicted by early models dependent on inputs that now look inaccurate, would they have risked tens of millions of jobs and livelihoods? (若執政者了解COVID-19的死亡率初期預估是錯誤的,則他們還願意以幾千萬失業與生計為代價執行現在的隔離政策嗎?)