It is easy to say that people need to keep learning throughout their careers. The practicalities are daunting.
1. The share of the American workforce employed in routine office jobs declined from 25.5% to 21% between 1996 and 2015. The single, stable career has gone the way of the Rolodex.
2. Pushing people onto ever-higher levels of formal education at the start their lives is not the way to cope. Just 16% of Americans think that a four-year college degree prepares students very well for a good job.
3. Although a vocational education promises that vital first hire, those with specialized training tend to withdraw from the labor force earlier than those with general education — perhaps because they are less adaptable.
4. At the same time on-the-job training is shrinking roughly 50% in the past two decades.
5. Self-employment is spreading, leaving more people to take responsibility for their own skills.
6. Nano-degree programme will be more helpful to professionals. But left to its own devices, this nascent market will mainly serve those who already have advantages.
7. Lifelong learning starts at school. As a rule, education should not be narrowly vocational. The curriculum needs to teach children how to study and think, A focus on “metacognition” will make them better at picking up skills later in life.
8. Singapore has such “individual learning accounts”; it has given money to everyone over 25 to spend on courses from 500 approved providers.
在網路以及許多軟硬體技術越來越容易入手再加上sharing economy越趨成熟與多方面應用的前提下,未來的工作型態組織將不見得一定要往龐大的方向走,同時組織人員也會越來越可變動。
也就是說,許多人可能同時做著來自於不同組織的工作任務,也可以反過來,在某組織工作完畢之後很快又加入新組織追逐新計劃與目標。如同經濟學人所言,routine office jobs在未來將越來越少,而self-employment型態將愈來愈多。
一個人難以靠著一種技能吃一輩子;多種技能同時工作中繼續累積學習新技能的形態很可能是未來多數人工作常態。
這不得不讓我們回頭看最近搞一例一休的政府,其觀念根本還活在20世紀初卓別林電影中的工廠型態。許多搞工運或勞工運動的,其所訴求也將與未來人類主流工作型態脫節。未來資方、勞方身分將模糊化,佐以證券市場自由度與活絡度提高的前提下,資方與勞方可能根本就是同一群人。
台灣政府不思將工作權的選擇自由還給勞工與資方,我們熟知制度經濟學的都知道,越是僵化的制度帶來的社會淨損越高。
更進一步想,面對新的工作型態,政府在公司法組織、勞動法、教育認證與教育販售乃至於稅收制度上是否都有面對未來的準備?
如果說一個組織可以為了任務而召集某些人才,並於完成後分配利益且立即解散,傳統用來風險分配的公司法觀念是否要修正?是否要死心眼認定「公司就是要持續經營到天荒地老」?
如果說一個人可以隨時加入/離開某組織,亦或是同時隸屬多個組織,那傳統勞動法中僵硬的勞資對立觀念以及工時、工資等種種僵化安排是否要修正?稅制又該如何因應呢?
在民間組織高度靈活話的未來,死板龐大且多所浪費的政府組織難道不需要被改革?台灣政府處處加稅,幾時認真檢討過自己浪費人民稅金過甚?!
如果說一個人畢業後10年所需的工作技能早遠遠超過學校教育所能給予,那學校教育究竟應該著重在技職亦或是基礎邏輯訓練與自我學習習慣之建立?此人就業後的終身學習資源與認證,政府又能扮演怎樣的角色?台灣政府要不要檢討每年幾十億科專計畫真實效益?面對變動成人全球化競爭的世界,腦袋裝水泥的教育部存在之必要?
題外話一句,小孩面對的學習壓力並非來自於考試,而是來自於他成年後要面對的全球化競爭。因此某些搞教改或推行無壓力學習的無知人士,根本看錯重點也誤人子弟。未來競爭壓力越大,自然會傳遞到他小時候的學習競爭。無視於此現實而一昧地讓小孩活在溫室裡,只不過是讓他們成年之後更無能力去面對父母再也遮掩不了的競爭現實。
經濟學第一課:競爭來自於稀缺!
競爭不是來自於文化、種族、價值觀或考試,競爭就是來自於稀缺。安家立命就是稀缺財,只要你的子孫想要在未來世界養家活口,競爭必然存在直至入土為安。