“The raising of personal debts and reduction of savings means American are more eager to spend, which implies three possibilities:
A. the anticipated inflation rate increases, or;
B. the anticipated income grows, or;
C. the information cost of the future progress decreases.
The problem here is which factor weighs more over the others? If the factor A stands out, then, according to I. Fisher’s theory of the interest, the total wealth of the American will decrease. In a lucky situation, the Fed may sense it about six months later and stop raising the Fed Fund Rate to save the economy as it had done before. In a bad situation as the Fed blindly continuing raising the interest rate, we can predict a bear market coming for a while until the Fed realize the real situation. No matter which one happened, the recent economic expansion would not last for long.
If the factor B or C weighs more than the factor A, the total wealth will increase and the prosperity could be foreseen. There are two major causes to make it happen: one is the growth of productivity and the other is the decrease of transaction costs, including but not limited to the more friendly laws to businesses, over-haul lower tax burdens, and lower immigrant limits (including illegal Mexican immigrants).”
Based on the economics view, some information, including fake or true, does damage the reputation of the brands of the business or a candidate running a campaign. It means possible decreases of the future income flows, which is the wealth itself. This could be a business model for out-sourcing part of crisis-at-dawn managements.
However, it’s plausible that the service provider could be the fake information spreader at the beginning. How to price and how to persuade the brand owner to accept such service would be another question.
Is anyone interested or doing this kind pf business right now in Taiwan?
“Bitcoin prices are in a bubble. To recognise this, one need only look at the cryptocurrency’s vertiginous path to its current peak of more than $16,000 — and then recall that it has no intrinsic value. It is not productive like oil, and no government stands behind it. It is not even physically attractive, as paintings, gold and tulips are. As of today, the sole legitimate reason to buy bitcoin it is to sell it later for a higher price.”
a. 數量固定 ： 這也是比特幣不斷強調的特色之一。
b. 贗品機率不高： 目前區塊鏈技術尚未被破解，其技術本身保證了每一單位比特幣的真實性。網路上的交易者幾乎不太會遇到「買到假比特幣」的風險。（被黑心仲介詐騙是另一回事，不屬於贗品問題）。
c. 流通轉手費用低廉： 去中心化、網路虛擬特性加上保密性，相較於黃金、珠寶乃至於古董字畫，比特幣的轉手瞬間完成，而且費用極為低廉。
d. 價格無上限： 所有無產出財富倉庫均有此共通特色，因為無產出，所以沒有未來預估收入流可以折現計算。反過來，也就失去了這個合理評估價值的量度工具，造成此類財富倉庫價格波動可以非常劇烈且快速。
a. 價格可快速下跌至零： 正因為無產出，使得比特幣成為「無根」的財富倉庫，上漲可無限，但下跌至零也是合理。畢竟無產出的物品難以有預期收入來做真實價值（intrinsic value）的支撐內涵。
c. 競爭易轉激烈： 正因為區塊鏈採開放原始碼，複製同樣的技術創立新數位貨幣的進入門檻很低。 2017年將近100種新區塊鏈貨幣進入市場，其中有30%完全無人使用與交易。 當交易速度更快、保密性更高（如Ether coin）進入市場，競爭之下必然會拉低比特幣的匯價或漲幅。 而從宏觀角度來看，誕生新區塊鏈貨幣的門檻很低，是不是也意味著「數量固定」這一點其實是守不住的？值得思考。
d. 無歷史共識： 相較於黃金、珠寶乃至於古董字畫，比特幣的歷史共識非常低，尤其跟黃金相比。這會使得價格下跌時，牛群信心崩盤、樹倒猢猻散的速度飛快，猶如荷蘭鬱金香炒作事件。新玩意兒容易炒，但要死也特別快。